by Johan Kriek (


12:00  GMT   GBP     BOE rate decision Feb

12:45   GMT  EUR     ECB rate decision Feb

13:30   GMT  EUR     ECB Press Conference


Before I start with the Probability Studies I want to indicate the Head and Shoulders pattern on the 1H EUR chart. This is a bearish pattern, meaning it signals a possible bearish breakout. The breakout will be confirmed once the neckline has been violated and confirmed. If t he ECB SURPRISES the market with a cut then the breakout could be severe


Here’s the probability study of the EUR. Although this is a 4H chart, the most ACTIVE cycle within the bearish current trend remains bearish. We will only have a bullish probability IF 1.2960 resistance is violated. Expect support at 1.2720.


Once again, we also have a bearish pattern on the GBP 1H in the form of a rising wedge. A rising wedge in a bull trend signals reversal. Be warned. If the BoE surprizes, we could see a significant move to the downside which of course will have a “probability changing effect”


Although the probability is bullish, I will wait for the wedge to fail before attempting any longs here way after the BoE announcement. Should price shoot higher, expect resistance at 1.4840

We have immediate support at 1.4350, should this be violated we will have a bearish trading condition. Once again I would like to stress the fact that a rate cut from the BoE does not seem to be priced in already and therefore the risk remains to the downside

Rather come and join me in the Live Trading Room here at FXInstructor to follow how today unfolds

Have a good one and be patient. “if you are patient, you will be rewarded..”

Johan Kriek