1/12/2011 - The Current Market Sentiment

From another side, the greenback came under pressure by the rising of the risk appetite which has been fueled by continued improving of US economic data as Nov ADP Employment rose strongly up to 203k while the market was waiting for just 130k from 110k in October have been revised up too to 116k suggesting better data to come tomorrow with the release of US labor report of November and concerning the housing sector we have seen also a very strong monthly rising of the pending home sales in October by 10.4% while the consensus was referring to another declining by 1.3% following the drop of September by 4.6% showing improving of the demand in the housing market too as the pending home sales is an expressive leading indicator of this sector and also the manufacturing sector in Chicago has shown better than expansion in November as Chicago Manufacturing PMI rose up to 62.6 while the market was forecasting small rising to 58.6 from 58.4 in October and even the US Beige Book release which always comes 2 weeks before the Fed's meeting has come better than October because of the improving of the consuming spending, manufacturing sector performance and the tourism activity and these data came to ensure the improving of the US economic performance recently following the very strong rising figure of Nov US consumers confidence figure to 56 while it was expected to improve to just 44 after a massive falling in October to 39.8 and these data were enough to keep the gains of the US stocks which started yesterday session in the positive territory following the PBOC'S decision of cutting the banking RRR by 0.5% for the first time in 3 years showing greater interest in the growth downside risks facing Chine after Nov HSBS PMI manufacturing index of China has come down to 48 from 51 in October while the inflation pressure has shown easing sings by falling below 6% in October to 5.6%.

While the single currency looked the greater winner of the Fed's action with another major 5 central banks as it lower the pressure on the EU banking system resorting confidence in it showing real coordinating efforts to help it getting over the crisis after this week EU US meeting Between the EU commissioner Jose Barroso and Obama who has said that US is standing ready to take its part ensuring that the greater risk facing the US economy is this crisis in EU.

This action also came in time the markets which did not see certainty in getting over the crisis as the failing of the EU Fin Ministers in Brussels to identify a target of the EFSF looking for further support from the IMF's side.

The Single currency could get over 1.344 which stopped it in the face of the single currency before this week to reach 1.3532 during the US session and by god's will, it can face now in the case of rising up further other resisting levels at 1.3557, 1.3613, 1.3808, 1.387 which pressed down the pair capping its rising many times last moth and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2 while the way down of this pair can be faced by supporting levels at 1.3271 .1.3211.1.3144 which contained the pair falling from recently and whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4th of last month reaching 1.4245 after the EU summit agreement in Brussels on 27th of last month and breaking it can open the way to 1.3 psychological level and breaking it can open the way for 1.2873 which has been the recorded low of this year on the 10th of last January.

Kind Regards

FX Market Strategist Walid Salah El Din E-Mail: mail@fx-recommends.com http://www.fx-recommends.com