by Johan Kriek (

Key notes:

- Dovish ECB can cut rates below 2%, bad for EUR

- Dovish BoE signals the “deep recession” will require more easing, bad for GBP

- Equity market still uncertain about US stimulus package, carry trade unwinding still rife

*all of the above statements constitutes a strong dollar bias

Probability Studies


The EUR is situated in a no trade zone guys. I see a triangular formation and even though it is symmetric, I do not like the preceding trend. Therefore we cannot say this one could breakout to the downside and therefore the NO TRADE ZONE. The upper resistance line of this EUR triangle is 1.3020 and support comes in at 1.2860

I will firmly stand aside on this one. It is not tradeable. Wait for the breakout either up or down and then trade the probability that follows. We have Eurozone Industrial Production later but I think the current equity market turmoil could weigh more on the EUR. Join me in the Live Trading Room to keep up to date


The GBP is bearish but due to the fact that we have an intermediate bullish cycle with support at 1.4335 I would wait for this support to be taken out first before continuing to short this once. I remain bearish but I wouldn’t want to trade against a support level like this. Once 1.4335 is taken out we will have a nice bearish trading condition on the GBP. After all, the 1 hour Stochastic is already bearish

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Johan Kriek