The worries about the US labor market have renewed again today with the rising of US initial jobless claim of the week ending on 7th April to 380k while it was expected to fall to 355k from 367k a week earlier.
The greenback has fallen across the broad as this figure pushed up the speculations of having another QE3 later this year and also lowered the possibility of hiking the interest rate in the beginning of 2004
The gold looked the most gainer of this data and jumped above 1670$ again in a similar reaction following the release of Mar US NFP which came adding only 120k Jobs while the market was widely waiting for 200k from 240k in February.
The single currency also could get over the current looming worries about the Spanish debt and it could get over its previous resistance versus the greenback at 1.3163
While the US equity market is trying to get more of its lost ground recently by this increasing prospective of having further easing steps by the Fed which always cares of the labor market performance which was worrying the Fed's chief Bernenke even before these recent data which highlighted to the market the vulnerable to deterioration stance of the US labor market while the market will be closely watching tomorrow for the release of Mar US CPI which is expected to show easing to 2.7% y/y from 2.9% in Feb by God's will to know more about the inflation pressure in US over the consuming level after the producing level have shown today falling of US PPI in March to 2.8% while it was forecasted to decline to 3.1% from 3.3% in Feb.
God willing, the gold can face now another resistance at $1684 resistance before the psychological level at $1700 per ounce which can be followed by another resistance at $1726 before $1790 whereas the it has started to fall by the end of last Feb to reach its recent bottom at $1612 in the fourth of this month and in the case of retreating back again from here, it can meet supporting level at $1650 before meeting this bottom again and breaking it too can open the way for another supporting level at $1592 before $1523 again which could contain previously its falling from $1920 driving it back up to these current levels.
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din