The gold breaking above 1300$ with the beginning of this week by this characteristic suggesting that the way done could be over at this time and there can be a way for getting back to 1348$ before 1396$ again after forming a bottom at 1180$ and a higher bottom at 1207$ to creep again stepping on 1267$ which could hold last week after failure to get over 1300$ making another higher low before succeeding to get over it by this way.
The Gold has been supported in its way to have a place above 1300$ again by the space of correction which has been given to it following Bernanke’s comments about holding the Fed’s QE as long as it can which has been followed by this testimony last week which has shown that the Fed’s is not precommiting about the QE as it looks and it is to wait for the economic data to come to move forward making the market participants to respeculate the time of the QE ending as it has become harder to be with the middle of 2014 as it had been priced before on the recent Fed’s meeting overcome on last 19th of June.
There was no a main event to direct the gold but just a modern talking about revising the permission to the US investment banks which has been given in 2003 to trade commodities with expected starting of discussions about this issue tomorrow in the senate banking committee by God’s will.
The market is to be waiting for the US housing data and durable goods this week but the main event is still to be the first reading of US GDP of Q2 which is to come in the last day of this month with a new Fed’s meeting by God’s will and until that the main market driver can be the Fed’s officials talking and the talking about the inflation upside risks which can be also monitored closely after last month rising of US CPI to 1.8%y/y from 1.4% in May from 1.1% in April while the Fed’s yearly target is 2% and it has referred previously to rising 0.5% over this rate as a clue of ending its QE policy too.
In this same time, the greenback can be depressed by surpassing of last 22nd highs of the US major stocks indexes which can open the way for new highs with increasing speculations of longer holding of the Fed’s QE supporting the investors for taking risks.
While the markets can find out in Abe’s strong winning of the upper house in Japan a way for further financial stimulation efforts and supporting to BOJ to go on in its ultra stimulating monetary base putting pressure again on the JPY supporting taking risks in the equities markets specially the Japanese one after getting under pressure following BOJ upgrading of its economic outlook which decreased the speculations of more easing steps to come.
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 2465 9143
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