With the current low volume of the thanksgiving holiday trading, the forex market is taking a readiness position ahead of today release of Germane IFO of November which is expected to slide again below 100 to 99 from 100 in October and also for the release of Germane GDP of the third quarter which is expected to show quarterly expansion by 0.2% after 0.3% in the second quarter.
That’s beside the current market anxiety ahead of next Monday when the EU Fin Min to meet again for reaching new resolutions about restructuring the debt of Greece which is still waiting for 44 Bln Euros to be disbursed out of its second bailing out plan 31 bln from them can be considered hanged since last June.
The markets are pricing currently on a reached deal avoiding default as the conclusion out from the EU official are still pouring into the same meaning of supporting Greece Specially after Merkel comments and its fin Min Shouble which could calm down the markets suggesting the possibility of adding 10 bln euro to the EFSF for aiding Greece or delaying the interest rate payment of its debt into 2020s but with no debt haircut as red line.
So, it has been to the market just technical issues which have capped the EU Fin Min, ECB and IMF in Brussels from taking a decision last Tuesday night which disappointed the market first by the delaying of the resolution itself and second by showing that there was no direction for delaying reaching the Greek debt to GDP ratio to 120% to 2022 from 2020.
That’s besides waiting for what can come out from the current discrepancies in EU parliament about the conflict between the need of stimulating the growth and the need of improving the financial situation of the members by imposing austerities measures in their coming budgets.
By God's will, EURUSD which is having its eyes on any new comments can come out about Greece can face now in the case of rising further crossing over 1.29 facing resisting psychological level at 1.30 which can be followed by 1.3082 before its recent formed lower high on 17th of last month at 1.3138 after it failed to break 1.3171 again while retreating back can be met by 1.2734 before 1.2661 again whereas it could rebound last week after Greece could sell successfully 4.062 billion Euros of treasuries bills for a month and 3 months T-bills for meeting its close 5 billions euro required to be financed last week and in the case of falling further the pair can meet another supporting level at 1.2604 which is forming 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rising from 1.2041 to 1.3170 before 1.2464 again which meets also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this same rising.
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din
Mob: +20 12 465 9143