The greenback has started the week under pressure on no reached deal between the current democratic ruling party and the republicans for hiking the taxes until now can open the door for succeeding voting for raising the current debt working $14.29B limit which has been reached in the middle of last May while the markets are waiting anxiously for the way the US Government to pay its financial obligations in the second of next month and it looks that till we reach this time the markets sentiment will be possessed by the development of this ascending problem in US eyeing on next Friday release of US Q2 GDP which is expected to get down to 1.6% y/y from 1.9% in the first quarter of this year.
The Swiss Frank got use of this negative business spending sentiment and continued its pressure on the US dollar despite the recent weaker than expected release of Swiss trade balance of June which came at 1745M Frank while the market were waiting for 2.7B from 3.03B in May and also the big falling of July ZEW expectations index to the worst since Jan 2009 to -58.9 from -24.3 in June which refer to weaker confidence in the Swiss economic growth.
USDCHF has fallen below its recent supporting level at 0.8076 reaching 0.8019 under technical pressure too from being below its trend line resistance which is extended from 0.9338 to 0.8945 and over a longer range from being below the trend line resistance extension from 1.1729 to 0.9773 and God willing, the next expected supporting level can be at the psychological level at 0.8 while the its next resistance can be at 0.8276 , 0.8551 then 0.8945 again.
The demand for gold has increased too getting use of this dovish sentiment which is weighing down on the US Treasuries appeal as a safe haven too to make a new high reaching $1623 per ounce while its next supporting levels are expected to be at 1575. 1540$, 1523$, 1509$, 1493$ then 1477$ which has been reached under the pressure of not giving hints about new Fed's Q3 plan following its recent meeting on 22nd June.
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din