by Johan Kriek (

Key notes:

- Fed keeps interest rates at 0.25% and mentions in the statement more risk to the downside before recovery

- Obama’s $825billion stimulus package is passed

- UK House prices could have an impact later in the Euro session

- Eurozone unemployment data and Consumer Confidence could spark a serious move in the EUR

Probability Studies:


No trade zone, bearish probability. Price is converging with the newly identified current trend support. I’d wait for this support level at 1.3085 to be violated first to confirm that the bearish probability is indeed sustainable. Next support will be 1.2980. If the current trend is violated and the 1 hour stochastic turns bearish we will have a nice bearish trading condition - the only battle we have to fight then is the latter mentioned support. Join me in the Live Trading Room to see how this one pans out :)


No trade zone, bearish probability. The bullish 60minute trend has been violated and although I cannot see a lower significant peak to identify a new bearish 60minute trend, just the fact that the previous bullish one has been violated we now have a fully fledged bearish probability on our hands. As soon as the 1 hour stochastic gives me a bearish cross I will have a nice shorting condition. Keep in mind that if the current trend is violated to the upside the probability will be bullish again. The level to watch is 1.4275

Have a good one!

Johan Kriek