by Johan Kriek (

Key notes:

- George Soros warns the EUR could fail in spectacular fashion unless a bad bank is created

- EUR CPI will indicate inflation which will give us an idea of what the ECB will do with interest rates - remember that Trichet is still dovish..

- US GBP expected to be the lowest in 26-years and could spark another equity market selloff. Be warned

Probability Studies:


Before I start with the Probability analysis on the EUR I would like to point out that we have a serious bearish price pattern on the daily charts. This is known as a Head and Shoulders pattern and signals a continuation of the preceding bearish trend. The pattern break would be confirmed once the neckline is violated. The level to look for is 1.2680

Now, the EUR’s probability study


No trade zone, bearish probability. As long as the 60minute trend remains bearish the bearish bias will remain intact. The reason we don’t have a trading condition is the bullish 1 hour stochastic. Market rhythm is consolidating so I’d wait for a bearish 1hr cross first. Don’t forget about EU CPI later… it can move the market


No trade zone, bearish probability. We have significant resistance at 1.4330, if price stays within the range of the bearish current trend (below 1.4330) the bearish bias will remain intact. A lower peak indicated by the 1hr stochastic will give us a nice bearish trading condition. Come and see how this one develops in the Live Trading Room


Johan Kriek