The single currency has retreated back again after failure to break above 1.387 again versus the greenback which is getting support currently from the disagreement around the way of IMF financing of the EU debt amid the G20 meetings in France.
The single currency has been under pressure yesterday by the unexpected decision of the ECB to cut the interest by 0.25% and Draghi's warning of falling in a mild recession at the end of this year but the Greek PM calling off the referendum on the second bailing out plan could help the single currency to get over 1.38 again and it is now trading around 1.373 after the US Labor report release of October which has shown producing 80k jobs out of the farming sector while the market was waiting for 100k with up revision of September reading to 158k from 103k and also with easing of the US unemployment rate to 9% from 9.1% in September and these data came after Oct US ADP had come earlier this week adding 110k while the markets were waiting for 100k revising up September reading to 116k from 91k and even the US Initial jobless claim for the week ending on 29 Oct has come down to 397k from 406 a weak earlier while the market was waiting for 402kwe have seen showing really gradual improving of the US Labor market as the Fed's referred earlier this week again.
By God's will, The markets are waiting now anxiously for the results of confidence voting in the Greek Government and also the joint statement which will be send out after the end of G20 2 days meeting while the single currency way down versus the greenback can meet supporting level at 1.3655 which could hold yesterday after the ECB's interest rate cutting decision and in the case of falling it can meet anther supporting level at 1.3607 whereas it could rebound earlier this week and breaking it can lead to lower supporting levels at 1.3564, 1.3359, 1.3232 then 1.3144 whereas it has begun its recent rebound on 4th of last month reaching 1.4245 last week after the EU summit agreement in Brussels and in the case of ascending back, it can face now resistance again at 1.387 and breaking it can lead to test higher resisting levels at 1.3959 before the psychological level at 1.4 which breaking it can open the way for 1.4199 then 1.4245 again before 1.4279 which has been reached by the SNB's action to limit the EURCHF drawing down over 1.2
FX Market Strategist
Walid Salah El Din