Global Equities Research has lowered its profit and sales estimate of Adobe Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE) on weak creative suite 5.5 (CS5.5) upgrades and corporates cutting their IT spending citing higher gasoline prices.
For the second quarter, the brokerage cut its earnings forecast by a penny to 50 cents a share and revenue projection by $9 million to $993 million, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 5.3 percent and 14.5 percent respectively. Wall Street expects Adobe to earn 51 cents a share on revenue of $996.01 million, according to analysts polled by Thomson Reuters.
For fiscal 2011, the brokerage expects earnings of $2.15 a share on revenue of $4.086 billion, reflecting growth of 7.5 percent and 11.17 percent respectively from last year. Analysts expect earnings of $2.23 a share on revenue of $4.12 billion.
CS5.5 upgrades are off to a poor start, upgrades not happening, some preferring month-to-month subscription; CS5.5 is not going to provide any revenue uplift, analyst Trip Chowdhry wrote in a note to clients.
The analyst's research indicates that creative professionals are holding back upgrading to the latest CS5.5 and are using their existing CS version they already have.
In a few instances, creative professionals are buying CS5.5 on month-to-month subscription as it is cheaper than an upgrade. The month-to-month subscription ranged between about $100 to $130 per month, while an upgrade would have cost $2,000 to $3,000.
In addition, higher gasoline prices are having a negative derivative impact on the Adobe's Creative Segment, which accounts for 40 percent of Adobe's business.
There is a sequential drop of about 5 percent in projects for the creative professional. Higher Gasoline Prices is directly or indirectly hurting corporations business and subsequently the corporations are selectively cutting their IT Budgets, Chowdhry wrote.
However, Adobe's Omniture business is probably sequentially up and customers seem to continue to invest in Online Analytical tools to monitor the effectiveness of their various online properties. The Omniture business represents about 10 percent to 12 percent of Adobe's revenues.
Chowdhri, who has an equal-weight rating and $31 price target on Adobe stock, expects the stock to trade sideways from probably another 3 - 4 quarters.
Shares of Adobe closed Tuesday's regular trading session at $34.63 on Nasdaq.