This month's ADP Employment report came in at 187K vs expectation of 145K. Last month's off the charts 297K was revised down by 50K to 247K - which shows we place far too much emphasis on figures than can be adjusted +/- 20% in 30 days.
The variance between ADP and the monthly government data has been significant the past few months for whatever reason, so not sure if we can read a thing into the figure.
As for this Friday's payroll number I was being facetious this weekend when I said if the number is below expectation they will blame it on the snow. Indeed, a certain analyst ... we'll call him JoeV.... already is saying the survey week came during snowstorms so it could disappoint. Expectation is 140,000.
Either way we need 125-150K a month just to keep up with the increase in adult population growth, and we should have had months of 250-300K+ a few quarters ago. Housing and employment continue to be the 2 stubborn issues in the economy.