ADP Non-Farm Employment (Apr) Actual -491K, Expected -644k, Previous -742k (-708K Revised)
Release Explanation: This is a private report issued by Applied Data Processing, a major supplier of payroll services to 100's of businesses. The report estimates change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
Normally issued the Wednesday before the government's NFP report, the report has suffered from a lack of accuracy with regards to the Department of Labor's report. The company recently announced it had upgraded its modeling systems in order to better reflect the official number.
Trade Desk Thoughts: According to Automated Data Processing (ADP) nonfarm private employment decreased by 491,000 from March to April, a signal that Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls might produce a pleasant surprise.
April’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 229,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 262,000, with employment in the manufacturing sector dropping 159,000, its thirty-eighth consecutive decline.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 77,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 231,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 183,000. The employment declines among medium- and small-size businesses indicate that the recession continues to spread beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities to almost every area of the economy.
In April, construction employment dropped 95,000. This was its twenty-seventh consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,261,000.
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures have turned positive. After an active overnight session, the dollar has weakened across the board since the release of the ADP report as traders see this as a possible sign that the declines in employment are slowing.