ADP Non-Farm Employment (Jan) Actual -522k, Expected -528k, Previous -659k (Revised from -693k)
Release Explanation: This is a private report issued by Applied Data Processing, a major supplier of payroll services to 100's of businesses. The report estimates change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
Normally issued the Wednesday before the government's NFP report, the report has suffered from a lack of accuracy with regards to the official number from the Department of Labor. The company recently announced it had upgraded its modeling systems in order to better reflect the government's report.
Trade Desk Thoughts: According to Automated Data Processing (ADP) nonfarm private employment decreased by 522,000 from December 2008 to January 2009 on a seasonally adjusted basis, an indication the worst recession in the post-war period is worsening.
The Fed believes employment will weaken going into 2010, said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. Today's report showed that sharply falling employment at small to medium size businesses clearly indicates that the recession continues to spread beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities.
The service-providing sector saw a loss of 279,000 jobs, while jobs in the goods-producing sector declined by 243,000, the twenty-fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 160,000, its twenty-eighth decline over the last twenty-nine months.
Large businesses (>500 or more workers) saw employment decline 92,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 255,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 175,000.
Construction employment dropped 83,000. This was its twenty-second consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 923,000.
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures were recently about 3 points below their high of the session, up 0.4%. The dollar has gained on the euro and pound so far today, but is lower against the yen.