Release Explanation: This is a private report issued by Applied Data Processing, a major supplier of payroll services to 100's of businesses. The report estimates change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
Normally issued the Wednesday before the government's NFP report, the report has suffered from a lack of accuracy with regards to the Department of Labor's report. The company recently announced it had upgraded its modeling systems in order to better reflect the official number.
Trade Desk Thoughts: According to Automated Data Processing (ADP), nonfarm private employment at U.S. firms decreased by 697,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, an indication the worst recession in the post-war period is worsening.
The Fed believes employment will weaken going into 2010, said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. Today's report from ADP will probably get The Street talking about a loss of over 700k in Friday's NFP report.
Private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 359,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 338,000, the twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 219,000, its thirty-sixth consecutive decline.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline 121,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 314,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 262,000.
In February, construction employment dropped 114,000, the twenty-fifth consecutive monthly decline, bringing the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007 to 1,004,000.
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures were holding fairly steady after the report, with a gain of about 9.50 points on the session, off the high made on 705.50. The dollar weakened overnight against the higher-yielding currencies as futures advanced.