Wheat Market Recap
Dec Wheat finished up 18.25 at 657, 2.25 off the high and 20.25 up from
Mar Wheat closed up 13.25 at 679.50. This was 16.50 up from the low and 2.50 off the high.
Dec Wheat climbed higher on the session and experienced the highest close since October 11th.
Early support came from a more positive tilt to outside market factors but a surge higher in Minneapolis helped support a Short-covering trend into the mid-session.
Funds held a large net Short position in Friday's COT report. A weaker USD and strength in the other grains helped to support the market and pushed the market to the highest level since October 12th.
France exported 1.6-M tons of Wheat in September which pushed the 3-month total for the season to date to 4.4-M tons which is down 10% from last year.
Dec Minneapolis Wheat pushed to the highest level since June 9th to a peak of 968 but traded back to near 944 into the close.
Traders see a drop in ending stocks of about 20-M bu from 837-M bu last month for the supply/demand update in the morning.
Corn Market Recap
Dec Corn finished up 7.25 at 660.50, 3.50 off the high and 8.50 up from
Mar Corn closed up 5.75 at 671. This was 7.75 up from the low and 3.75 off the high.
Dec Corn saw an upside break-out Tuesday and saw the highest close since September 21st.
The early rally was supported by firm outside market forces and pushed the market to the highest level since October 21st.
Fund traders and end users were noted buyers ahead of the USDA reports for release before the opening tomorrow.
Traders see US ending stocks coming in near 70-75-M bu lower from 866-M bu last month. Yield is expected to drop about 1/2 of a bu per acre from 148.1 last month and this could trim production.
Some traders are looking for a yield as low as 145 which would drive ending stocks down to near 600-M bu and the stocks/usage to a record low.
French officials raised their estimate for the Maize crop this season to 15.2-M tons from 14.9-M as their previous estimate and from 13.8-M tons last year.
South Korea bought 85,000 tons of Corn with 55,000 from US and 30,000 India origin.
January Rice finished down 0.195 at 15.935, 0.245 off the high and equal to the low.
Soybean Complex Market Recap
Jan Soybean finished + 3.25 at 1205, 12.25 off the high and 5.25 up from the low.
Mar Soybean closed up 3.25 at 1214.75. This was + 5 from the low and 12.25 off the high.
Dec Soymeal closed down 1.7 at 307.6. This was + 0.6 from the low and 5.4 off the high.
Dec Soybean Oil finished + 0.65 at 51.85, 0.09 off the high and 0.84 up from the low.
Jan Soybean closed higher on the session but near the lows of the day and near 0.12 off of the early highs.
Strength in Corn and Wheat helped support the market early but volumes was said to be thin and buying slowed to pressure the market off of the highs.
Dec Soymeal closed moderately lower on the session and to the lowest close since October 7th. The market saw a recovery bounce from yesterday's sharp losses and prices today have stayed inside of yesterday's range.
For the USDA Crop Production and Supply/demand report for release before the opening tomorrow, traders see US ending stocks coming in near 20-25-M bu higher from 160-M bu last month.
A boost in Brazil production could cause world ending stocks higher as well. Traders see yield down slightly from last month which could cause production to come in lower than last month but exports are expected to be revised down by at least 25-M bu and some see a sharper cut. The market settled back from the early highs into the mid-session as equity markets pushed from higher to lower on the day over continued debt developments in Europe. Bigger deliveries of 414 contracts were seen as a negative.
Cattle Market Recap
Dec Cattle closed moderately lower on the day in quiet trade. The market pushed slightly higher in choppy trade early Tuesday and pulled back to near unchanged into the mid-session.
A move from higher to lower in the US equity markets helped to pressure the market off of the early highs but Cattle did not follow the stock market higher late in the session and a weakening USD also failed to support the market.
The early rally was led by talk that the sharp break yesterday may have been overdone. Ideas that higher exports to South Korea and Japan ahead and declining supply into the first quarter have been seen as positive forces.
A lack of direction from the cash market so far this week is seen as a negative. Boxed-Beef cut-out values at mid-session came in at 190.11 which was up 0.93 from Friday which is also up from 187.38 last week at this time.
Hog Market Recap
Dec Hogs closed 40 lower on the day and near the lows of the day and saw the lowest close since September 28th.
The market pushed lower in quiet trade early in the session as the market saw follow-through selling after yesterday's sharp sell-off even though Pork values were higher late yesterday and cash markets were showing some signs of stability.
Thoughts that packers are slowing down on slaughter late this week with some plants shuttered for Veterans Day was seen as a negative demand factor to push cash lower.
February Hogs fell sharply and pushed below the 50% retracement mark of the Mar to Oct rally which is at 87.42.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.