Wheat Market Recap
Dec Wheat finished down 24.25 at 592.50, 25 off the high and 2.25 up from the low.
Mar Wheat closed down 25.75 at 612. This was + 3 from the low and 25.25 off the high.
Dec Wheat closed sharply lower on the session and down to the lowest level since June of 2010.
A negative tilt to other commodity markets plus lower than expected weekly export data plus continued selling from fund traders helped to push the market sharply lower on the day.
Dec KC Wheat also pushed to a new 16 month low. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 317,100 metric tons for the current marketing year and 17,500 for the next marketing year for a total of 334,600 which was below trade expectations.
As of November 10th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 63.3% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012, current marketing year vs a 5 yr average of 65.6%.
Sales of 334,000 metric tons are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
The EU granted export licenses for 241,000 tons of Wheat this week which pushed cumulative sales to 5.8-M tons as compared with 9.2-M last year.
On top of poor export news, traders are talking about the outlook for more rain for parts of the Southern Plains next week which could benefit the crop going into dormancy.
Argentina Agricultural ministry pegged Wheat production for the Y's 2011/12 season at 12-M tons from 12.6-M last month. In the World supply/demand report, the USDA just lowered production to 13-M from 13.5-M as the October estimate.
Soybean Complex Market Recap
Jan Soybean finished down 19.50 at 1168.25, 23.75 off the high and + 6.25 up from the low.
Mar Soybean closed down 19.50 at 1178.50. This was 6.25 up from the low and 23.75 off the high.
Dec Soymeal closed down 1.9 at 294.5. This was + 4.3 from the low and 3.4 off the high.
Dec Soybean Oil finished down 1.08 at 51.4, 1.12 off the high and + 0.25 from the low.
Jan Soybean closed sharply lower on the session and saw the lowest close since November 29th of Y 2010.
Losses were more significant for Corn and Wheat, fund selling was active across the board.
A firm tone to the USD and continuing concerns for the debt issues in Europe helped to pressure the market early Thursday.
Solid weekly export sales plus confirmation of sales to China helped to support. Private exporters reported the sale of 420,000 tons of US soybean to China.
Net weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tons for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This is higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tons.
As of November 10th, cumulative Soybean sales stand at 55.1% of the USDA forecast for Y 2011/2012 the current marketing year vs a 5 yr average of 59.8%. Sales of 383,000 metric tons are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Soy Meal sales came in at 201,500 tons, also higher than expected. Sales of 102,000 tons are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Soybean Oil sales were just 2,100 tons which was well below expectations and compares with sales of 12,000 metric tons needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Palm Oil futures closed lower overnight but after first posting another 5-month high.
Weakness in metals, energy markets and other agricultural markets appears to be helping the market hold in a Long liquidation mode with Jan Soymeal pushing down to the lowest level since November 22nd of last year.
Corn Market Recap
Dec Corn finished down 28.25 at 614.50, 27.25 off the high and + 4.25 from the low.
Mar Corn closed down 28.75 at 623.25. This was + 4 1/4 from the low and 27.75 off the high.
Dec Corn closed sharply lower on the session and pushed to the lowest level since October 11th.
Aggressive fund selling emerged as Bearish outside market forces plus more and more signs of stiff competition for feed grains on the World export market helped to pressure.
Another week of very poor export sales plus a long liquidation selling trend pushed the market lower and the market saw further increased selling pressures on the move under Monday's lows.
Dec Corn is now down as much as 0.5575 from the bullish USDA report date of November 9th.
Weekly export sales came in at only 208,900 tons which was well below trade expectations and the lowest weekly sales total since October 14th of 2010.
As of November 10th, cumulative Corn sales stand at 53.0% of the USDA forecast for Y 2011/2012 current marketing year vs a 5 yr average of 40.9%. Sales of 451,000 metric tons are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast.
Thailand feed manufacturers bought 150,000 tons of Australia feed Wheat and this added to the negative tone for US Corn exports. Rumors of lower cash basis levels in central Illinois added to the negative tone.
Open interest pushed to the highest level since June.
January Rice finished down 0.24 at 14.715, 0.035 off the high and 0.125 up from the low.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.