US Agriculture after the closing bell report
Wheat futures saw 2-sided trade Monday but a late surge of buying interest helped futures to finish high-range. Chicago Wheat ended 0.02 to 0.10 higher; Kansas City closed mixed and Minneapolis favored the downside in a choppy finish. Wheat futures saw choppy trade Monday, with the Bears having a slight advantage most of the day and into the close thanks to spillover pressure from Corn and Soybean.
Corn futures opened lower, but trimmed losses to finish mixed Monday. The Sept through May contracts ended 0.0125 to 0.07 lower, with the rest of the market up 0.005 to 0.03 on Bull spread unwinding. Early weakness was tied to spillover from sharp losses in the Soybean market, but traders trimmed losses as they realize weekend rains will do no more than stabilize the Corn crop. Pressure on nearby futures was also limited by positive outside markets.
Soybean futures faced pressure throughout the session and ended low-range with losses of 0.40 + through the Jan contract; farther deferred months saw lighter losses. Soymeal and Soyoil finished with moderate losses due to spillover pressure. Weekend rains were heavier and more widespread than expected, benefiting filling Soybean. This encouraged traders to book profits to start the week.
Lean Hog futures got off to a choppy start, but selling interest increased as the day progressed and futures ended steady to 1.05 lower, which was low-range for the day. Plentiful near-term supplies weighed on the cash Hog market, which in turn pressured hog futures today. This morning, selling interest in nearby contracts was limited by the discount they hold to the cash Hog index, but Bears ultimately pulled the market lower.
Live Cattle ended narrowly mixed, but posted a low-range close on spillover from lean Hog futures. Pressure on live Cattle futures was limited by positive outside markets. Weakness in the U.S. dollar index and strength in the US stock market improved traders' attitudes. But buying was limited by ongoing weakness in the Hog pit.
Rain in the Midwest eases US drought
As much as 85% of the US Midwest got rained this past weekend in amounts varying between 0.2-0.8 inches, offering some relief for Corn and Soybean crops in the nation's main growing region. More rain is forecast for later this week, along with cooler temperatures.
But, the rain may have come too late to provide much help for the Corn crop, but Soybean are expected to reap some benefit from the rainfall and cooler weather.
Unfortunately, about a 33% of the Soybean growing region will continue to be dry.
Commodity prices for Corn dipped again this morning, down about -0.7% at about 8.02 bu.
Soybean prices fell even more, about -2%, to below 16.00 bu for the November futures contract.
The US Department of Agriculture will release its supply/demand report Friday, and traders and analysts are expecting another drop in the estimates for both the Corn and the Soybean crop.
Soybean falls on rain forecast; USDA report eyed
Chicago soybean fell more than 2%, unwinding last week's gainer, on forecasts for light rain in some regions of the drought-battered US Midwest over the coming days.
"There's cooler weather and a little bit of light rain forecast, which I think is keeping the market a bit depressed," according to a Sydney-based analyst at Advance Trading Australasia.
Hail hammering Saskatchewan, Alberta crops
Hail pounded crops in Saskatchewan and Alberta during the past two weeks, likely causing significant damage in Canada's 2 biggest Wheat- and Canola-growing provinces, a report said.
Saskatchewan has had hail nearly every night in the past 2 wks, with insurance claims totaling more than 7,600, ahead of the 5-yr average and last year's pace, the Canadian Crop Hail Association said Monday.
Informa cuts forecasts for US Corn production
Informa Economics expects the US government to lower its U.S. 2012 Corn yield estimate to 120.7 bu per acre (bpa) next week, but the firm also said in a note to clients Friday that it expected a "most likely final" Corn yield of 131.0 bpa.
Also, Informa said it expected the US Department of Agriculture next week to cut its US 2012 Corn production forecast to 10.338-B bu's, but the firm pegged final US Corn production at 11.224-B bu's.
Palm Oil finishes flat, Malaysia stocks data eyed
Malaysian crude palm oil finished flat as expectations of higher stocks in No. 2 producer Malaysia erased higher risk appetite on better-than-expected US jobs data.
"In the near term, the upcoming MPOB's July inventory data could swell above the psych range of 2-M tons," said a research analyst with Malaysia's Kenanga Investment Bank, in a note to investors.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. writes and publishes The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a weekly, highly-regarded financial market letter, read by opinion makers, business leaders and organizations around the world.
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr has studied the global financial and stock markets since 1984, following a successful business career that included investment banking, and market and business analysis. He is a specialist in equities/commodities, and an accomplished chart reader who advises technicians with regard to Major Indices Resistance/Support Levels.