Ally Financial Inc, the United States' largest maker of car loans, hopes that people have forgotten the time when subprime became a synonym for disaster.
Ally, once known as GMAC Financial Services, is getting ready to go public this year, and is making the case that subprime loans for used car buyers are not about to produce the same results that they did in the housing market a few years ago -- a near-collapse of the financial system.
Auto loans performed relatively well during the downturn, and demand for cars is up, so auto lending is one of the few types of consumer debt that is growing.
Ally wants to show investors that this makes it different from many other banks, which are struggling with weak loan demand and their own soured mortgages.
The company is making more loans to subprime borrowers, and financing more purchases of used cars, both steps with higher risk. It has said it wants to raise the percentage of auto loans on used cars that it makes to 50 percent from its current 20 percent.
Subprime car lending is a very attractive business today, Ally President William Muir told analysts on May 3. Profit margins on the loans more than cover the cost of expected losses from borrowers who fail to repay, he said. Plus, providing loans on used cars endears the company to dealers.
That may sound like a great plan now, but similar arguments about subprime mortgages were common in 2003, analysts said.
And, Ally and its competitors may follow the pattern of past credit cycles, where lenders make increasingly risky loans at lower interest rates until waves of defaults and losses swamp them. Loans that seem safe can sour quickly.
Some banks, including JPMorgan
Ally needs to stretch. Its funding costs are several percentage points higher than most of its banking rivals, which puts it at a disadvantage. Ally also uses a lot of money from the fickle credit markets. And General Motors
Ally is the kind of company that will likely need to call for the government's financial ambulance at some point in the future, said James Ellman, a hedge fund portfolio manager at Seacliff Capital in San Francisco. I don't know if it is sooner, or later, but it will happen.
In a written comment for this story, company spokesman James Olecki said, Ally Financial's strategy is to extend credit using sound underwriting criteria and responsible financing practices.
We accept retail auto contracts through the full credit spectrum -- including nonprime -- as a normal part of our business, he said. We place greater emphasis on the higher end of the nonprime spectrum and we only approve credit for qualified customers who demonstrate the ability to pay.
The government's ambulance came for Ally three times during the financial crisis as Ally's book of subprime mortgages collapsed. Taxpayers injected more than $17 billion into the company, which had assets of $287 billion in 2006 before loan values collapsed.
Those bailouts left the government holding a 74 percent stake in Ally, which the Treasury plans to sell, starting with the company's initial public offering. The deal could seek about $5 billion from investors in what may be the biggest IPO by a U.S. lender in more than a decade, according to Renaissance Capital, an investment advisory firm.
Ally filed its initial prospectus with regulators in March, and stock sales often come within three months of such a filing.
Public companies face much more pressure to boost profits, which is where things could get tough for Ally.
If Ally wants to achieve the kind of growth shareholders will be looking for, it has to look beyond the business of prime loans, said Gimme Credit analyst Kathleen Shanley. This segment of the market is extremely competitive; hence the company's increased focus on used cars and nonprime buyers.
To many analysts, those steps make sense. Used car rates can be several percentage points higher than new car rates. Subprime lending adds more. Loans on used cars to borrowers with subprime credit scores paid lenders more than 9 percent, compared with 5 percent or less for used car buyers with solid credit, according to data from credit bureau Experian.
The risk-adjusted returns in the used car market look very favorable, said Credit Sights analyst Adam Steer.
Used car buyers taking out loans tend to be less credit-worthy than new car buyers. Borrowers buying used cars in the first quarter had average credit scores of 663, compared with scores 766 for new car buyers, according to Experian.
That may seem worrisome, but subprime auto lending is not as risky as subprime mortgage lending, said Steer. Car loan payments are smaller and more manageable for borrowers than mortgage payments, he said. Plus, the money is scheduled to be repaid faster, and the loan collateral, the cars, is more easily seized and resold than are houses.
The average used car loan in the first quarter was made for $16,636 and required monthly payments of $343 for 58 months, according to Experian.
A lot of consumers chose to default on their mortgage, but remain current on their car loan, said Kirk Ludtke, an analyst at CRT Capital LLC in Stamford, Connecticut.
Default rates for auto loans were relatively low from May 2007 through October 2010, according to David Blitzer, managing director at Standard & Poor's. The peak rate for auto loan defaults was 2.75 percent in February 2009, which was less than half of the peak rate experienced by first mortgages and less than a third of the rate seen in bank-issued credit cards.
The lower default rates make car loans attractive for other lenders, not just Ally. Banks including TD Bank Group, which bought Chrysler Financial in December, and Spanish banking giant Santander