Monday's weekly crop progress reports meant little to prices as were winding down the harvest for corn and beans and our condition reports, once aggressively traded, are now over. Corn harvest came in at 79% complete versus the five year average of 38%. This skewed difference was, the results of the earliest planting dates on record which led to early maturity then harvest. Laggers were Indiana at 61% and Ohio 31% harvested. This report will have no effect on pricing.
Bean harvest was pegged at 71% complete versus the five year average of 58%. The only issue I found to affect pricing will show up later on the November 9 USDA monthly crop report. The states that got hit by drought the hardest have the most yet to harvest. Indiana came in at 51% harvested and ended its condition rating last week at 31% good to excellent condition, versus the national average of 37%. Kansas at 40% harvested and final condition of 9%. Missouri 36% harvested and 9% good to excellent condition. We could see the November crop report with declining production even if just a minimal drop. Winter wheat planting is now 71% complete.
Here's how key producers soil conditions came in as of October 14. Texas 42% in very poor to poor condition, Oklahoma 70%, Nebraska 97%, Colorado 83% and number one winter wheat producing state Kansas 80% very poor to poor condition. That being said, WXRISK.com the weather site noted Friday and Saturday saw ample rains across each state with 75% coverage of .50 to 1.50 inches with the heaviest rains over Oklahoma and Kansas. This will help emergence and speed up planting to take advantage of the wetter topsoil.
We should get our first crop condition report next week. There's not much history of the condition report being a driving force to futures pricing as the crop goes dormant around mid to late November. It's the key yield development time in April and May, where condition drives pricing. Early emergence conditions will give us an idea of root system and stem development is enough to hold up if a severe winter arrives with high winds and ice.
Last Friday we gave our next support for December corn 7.35 and November beans 14.85. Both those prices were hit on Mondays sharp beak as harvest progress and price pressure resumed. Tuesday saw short profit taking back to 7.452 on corn and 15.14 November beans in early trade. Unless something enters that's not then now we should expect corn to eventually close under support and push to tested the old low of 7.05 as demand remains nonexistence. Beans could fill all its gap which is down to 14.78.
We could see a rally Thursday after the 7:30 AM central time weekly export sales report comes out as rumors abound that China was in buying beans in large amounts last week and if true, the sales show up on this week's report. The last rumor was two weeks ago and that report had China in for over 1 million metric tons. Beans trading thirty five cents higher that day. Should the rumor get a foothold we could see some buying in beans ahead of the report's release. Should the rumor be true and a rally occur, use it as a selling opportunity for corn and beans and look for the harvest pressure trend to continue.
Technical read like this. December corn support is 7.35. A close under and 7.05 is next. Then 6.75 the bottom of the chart gap. Resistance is 7.70. November beans support is 14.85, 14.78 then 14.40. Resistance is 15.20 then 15.70. Wheat support 8.15 resistance 8.55 then 8.85.
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The article is provided by Alpari