Apple (AAPL) Earnings Release Q2 2013 Preview: Can iPhone 5, iPad Mini Sales Help Stock Shares Rebound?

  @redletterdave on April 22 2013 4:22 PM
Apple iPhones
Apple iPhones are the most reliable ones available in the market, says a new study. Reuters

Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) will report its fiscal second quarter results in a conference call scheduled for 5 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, and analysts will be looking for any signs of sustained momentum from the company’s latest devices, including the iPhone 5 and iPad mini, that could help the company rebound from its seven-month collapse on the stock market.

From its September high of $702 to its recent low of $390 last week, shares of the Cupertino, Calif.-based company have taken a beating on Wall Street, but analysts are still predicting modest financial growth for the iPhone maker.

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A Thomson Reuters poll of Wall Street analysts predicts Apple will report $42.66 billion in revenue, which is an 8.8 percent increase from the $39.2 billion it earned in the same quarter last year. Analysts also expect Apple to report $9.62 billion in profit on $10.12 earnings per share, a 17 percent decrease in profit and a decline from Apple’s $11.6 billion on $6.40 per diluted share in Q2 2012. If these numbers hold up, it will be the first year-over-year profit dip for Apple in 10 years.

As far as unit sales go, AAPL Orchard analyst Sammy The Walrus IV believes the iPhone will once again lead the way with 36.5 million units sold, a 4 percent increase year-over-year, followed by the iPad, which is believed likely to report 15.5 million units sold, representing 31 percent year-over-year growth. As PC sales shrink, one may assume there will also be a modest decline in Mac and iPod sales, which are slowly being cannibalized by the company’s more popular mobile devices.

Apple has made eight downward revisions to its earnings targets for Q2 2013, according to Yahoo Finance, as well as 10 downward revisions for the company’s next quarter’s earnings and 12 revisions for its full-year fiscal 2013 EPS.

AAPL Falling: A Reverse Of Fortunes

Six months ago, Apple could do no wrong on Wall Street; now, some analysts believe Apple doesn’t have enough mojo to reach its own low guidance for the quarter.

"Being a bear on Apple used to be a lonely position,” Enis Taner, global macro editor at New York-based options research firm RiskReversal.com, told Reuters. “The tables have turned."

It’s easy to pile on criticism of Apple recenlty, especially as the company released no new products in the last three months, despite previous rumors of a new Apple TV and iPad arriving in April. In fact, Apple isn’t expected to release a new iPhone or iPad until June at the earliest, which means the company will likely have to rely heavily on its iPhone 5, iPad 4 and iPad mini to carry most of the burden for the next several months.

Apple has many alleged products in its pipeline for 2013, including new Macs, iPhones, iPads and a highly rumored smart wristwatch, but margins for the company’s existing products are under a great deal of pressure. As Apple waits to release its many new products, rivals like Google, Samsung, BlackBerry and even Microsoft are upping their respective offerings with higher-quality and more affordable smartphones, tablets and computers.

During its earnings conference call, we expect Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss a number of current company issues, including an expansion to the company’s dividend and stock repurchase plan, possible delays in its Asia supply chains, and fallout from the company’s apology in China over its warranty practices. Cook will not specifically mention any future products or services, but we will listen closely for hints on Apple’s next big venture, whether it’s a TV set, a smartwatch or something entirely different.

AAPL shares rose about 2 percent to $398 on Monday, despite the many reports predicting a "terrible" Q2 2013 earnings report from the company. Given the incredibly low expectations for the world's second-largest company in terms of market capitalization, the company's stock may improve further on Tuesday, even if Cook and company. don't break any quarterly earnings records.

Apple will release its Q2 2013 earnings as soon as the market closes on Tuesday, which will be followed by the company’s conference call with investors at 5 p.m. EDT.

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