Core inflation ticks up, may support Fed stance

By Lucia Mutikani

April 15, 2011 1:56 PM EDT

Rising food and gasoline costs lifted U.S. consumer prices overall in March, but underlying inflation pressures were contained and consumers grew more confident about the economy in early April.

Although consumers remained concerned about higher energy and food costs, they saw the sharp rise in gasoline prices as temporary and longer-term inflation expectations eased.

The small rise in core inflation, excluding food and energy costs, and the moderation in long-term inflation expectations may be seen as vindication for officials at the Federal Reserve who have viewed the recent energy price spike as having a temporary effect on inflation.

"This should help to ease inflation concerns at the Fed. With food and energy cutting into consumer spending power, it's difficult for sellers of other goods and services to pass price increases through to the consumer," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.

The Fed's policy-setting committee meets April 26-27 and debate is most likely to focus on the timing of the withdrawal of some of the massive stimulus it has lent to the economy.

Follow us

Overall consumer inflation rose 0.5 percent in March after increasing by the same margin in February, the Labor Department said on Friday.

But the core consumer price index, watched by the U.S. central bank as a guide to monetary policy, edged up 0.1 percent after rising 0.2 percent in February. Economists had expected core CPI to gain 0.2 percent in March.

In other data, the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's index on consumer sentiment rose to 69.6 in early April from 67.5 in March, above expectations for a reading of 68.5.

Consumers' one-year inflation expectation was steady at 4.6 percent, but their expectations for the next five to 10 years fell to 2.9 percent in April from 3.2 percent in March.

Inflation expectations are viewed as a transmission channel for price pressures and Fed officials have said they would monitor them to ensure an inflation mentality does not become ingrained.

U.S. stocks rose as the encouraging economic data offset disappointing results from Bank of America Corp and Google. U.S. Treasury debt prices rallied on the inflation data.

INFLATION PRESSURES CONTAINED

Year-on-year consumer prices rose 2.7 percent, the largest gain since December 2009, after increasing 2.1 percent in February. In the 12 months through the end of March, core CPI rose 1.2 percent year-on-year -- well below the Fed's preferred level of 2.0 percent -- after advancing 1.1 percent in February.

While the data suggested that inflation pressures remained contained, most economists believe the Fed will strike a slightly more hawkish tone at the month-end meeting, citing another report that showed industrial capacity use jumped in March to its highest level since August 2008.

Copyright 2012 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.
Sponsor Link:
Join the Conversation
IBTimes TV

Canada Commits 300 Million to Afghanistan, But No Troops

Society
Salvage Operation to Bring the Capsized Costa Concordia to the Surface Begins

Recommended for you
  1. Insight: Morgan Stanley cut Facebook estimates just before IPOIn the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some ne...
  2. Bulgarian capital shaken by 5.6 magnitude quakeA 5.6 magnitude earthquake shook Bulgaria's capital Sofia early on Tuesday, causing residents to rush into the streets, the civil defence office said.