As Oil Bubble Pops, Inflation Hedges Fizzle

While those securities, which are used to hedge the risk from rising prices, have posted measly returns this year, most of the bloodletting could be over.

"TIPS have gotten crushed," said Bret Barker, portfolio manager of Treasuries at Metropolitan West Asset Management in Los Angeles. "TIPs are doing their usual seasonal dance in the fall, although this time around we are having a harder fall due to the energy correction," he added.

So far this year, the Lehman Brothers total TIPS return index is up 1.80 percent, underperforming the bank's total Treasuries index, which has posted 2.34 percent in total returns.

The proximate cause for the performance in TIPS has been the dramatic drop in crude oil . Prices have fallen by 20 percent after hitting a record high above $77 per barrel in mid-July. The average price of a gallon of gasoline, meanwhile, was $2.33, on Friday, down 49 cents a gallon from one month ago, according to the motorists' group AAA.

Some economists and strategists believe investors could be overexposed to securities and funds that guard them from inflation. Funds designed to hold precious metals have accumulated $3.5 billion this year while oil-sector funds are among the year's top asset gainers, with the Merrill Lynch Oil Service HOLDRs Trust amassing about $900 million this year, according to data tracked by Thomas McManus, chief investment strategist at Banc of America Securities in New York.

Since its May peak, the Reuters Jefferies CRB index, a basket of 19 commodities futures, has slipped 19 percent. The CRB index includes futures in everything from frozen concentrated orange juice to gold to oil and natural gas.

"There are few signs of disillusion despite the sell-off since May," said McManus.

Indeed, the Standard & Poor's 500 Select Energy fund has attracted about $900 million this year through Wednesday, but suffered heavy redemptions on Friday of $500 million, added McManus.

With U.S. large-cap stocks benefiting from receding inflationary pressures, owing to declining oil and gasoline prices, "investors need to consider whether their portfolio allocations are overweighted in inflation beneficiaries; we think many are," said McManus.