No 'Must-Have' Holiday Apparel Items Yet in Sight

Still, stores are likely to be merry with fewer discounts due to pared-down inventories and as lower gas prices have fattened shoppers' wallets.

"There is nothing new on the horizon. Same old, same old," said retail analyst Kurt Barnard. "Why should you buy a new blouse or new dress if what the merchants offer is something that you already have?"

Any predictions about holiday selling are still early - September sales figures this week will show the success of the recent back-to-school shopping season. But holiday selling is crucial, with apparel companies deriving about 24 percent of their annual sales from November and December transactions.

Stocks of apparel chains have seen strong momentum in recent weeks, with the S&P Apparel Retail Index rising over 6 percent in September on a higher-than-expected jump in consumer confidence.

But fashion watchers note that this year's look of voluminous or layered tops over slim pants or leggings has been around since spring.

Holiday apparel sales can get a boost from giftable items like size-neutral accessories - such as Gap Inc.'s striped scarves in 2002 or Ugg boots last year. Still, fashion watchers said the lack of a breakout super-seller does not ruin a holiday shopping season for retailers.

"People decide for themselves what's a must-have item," said retail consultant George Whalin. "They're going to buy like they always do. We're certainly not going to have a down holiday season. The economy is still quite strong."

B. Riley analyst Jeff Van Sinderen said that successful retailers will offer trendy fashions that include an assortment of tops and sweaters that are not size-dependent.

"It's got to be fashion-right - if it's too generic that's not going to work. There's got to be something to get the consumer in there to shop," said Van Sinderen.