Advertisers, who often worry that the programs they buy during the upfront negotiations might not be there later in the season, are now assured of it as the last original episodes of the fall series are played out and they all slip into repeats or are replaced. Some advertisers have pulled dollars because they likely won't be able to get the impact they expected. But there isn't a mass exodus, because first-quarter options -- the time when they could pull upfront commitments without penalty -- expired long ago.
But if the strike doesn't get settled soon, agencies and advertisers could exercise second-quarter options that are coming due in January. And if the networks underdeliver on their ratings guarantees -- and it's reasonable to assume that they will, given how nothing but "American Idol" will equal or better the delivery of originals of "House," "Grey's Anatomy" or "CSI" -- the networks would have to give make-goods (i.e. free advertising slots) or even cash back.
ABC's serialized scripted hits don't repeat well, but the network has a deep bench of replacements as well as reality hits "Dancing With the Stars" and "Extreme Makeover: Home Edition." On the other hand, CBS doesn't have that much inventory, but its crime dramas tend to repeat well, something that would be an advantage -- but only in the short term.
"There's only so many times you can run the sprockets off something," Carat's Brill said. "How many encores can you run?"
CBS will hope to bring some magic to the broadcast network with the decidedly un-family-friendly serial-killer thriller "Dexter" and perhaps other series from sister cable network Showtime.
"It probably speaks to how much they need scripted product," Brill said. "They probably have the least backup of any network. There are seven episodes of 'Jericho.' Maybe they are wishing they had gotten more."
Fourth-ranked NBC has had a shaky start to the season even without a strike. But scheduling chief Vince Manze said Friday that it will have more original hours of programming -- scripted and reality -- in the first quarter than it did in first-quarter 2007. The growth comes mostly from unscripted fare -- as many as 11 hours a week -- as the network plans to air 85 hours of original scripted episodes, down from about 100 last year.
That includes returning "Medium" and "Law & Order" as well as "Lipstick Jungle" and recycled episodes of "Law & Order: Criminal Intent," which had been relegated to USA. "Friday Night Lights" and "Vegas" were on an accelerated schedule, so there still are plenty of episodes.
