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Forexperts

Jay Norris

Dollar Unfazed by U.S. Slowdown Focus on a Worldwide Slowdown

Senior Market Strategist at Brewer Futures Group, LLC

05 Feb, 2008 @ 10:52 pm EST
Jay Norris
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USD/JPY Traders continue to assess the near term resistance at 107.88 as this price still needs to be penetrated to turn the main trend to up. Volatility is looming as the trade remains in a tight range. We saw the first sign that the market may attack 107.88 overnight as a higher bottom was formed at 105.71. Bullish traders should continue to look at 106.42 106.08 as key support. The base being built is very supportive to the upside. The current formation indicates a test of 107.88 is likely tomorrow.

GBP/USD This market seems poised to complete a .618 retracement to 1.9573 as minor support failed at 1.9646. The strong buying that came in triggered a rally to short-term resistance at 1.9797. Regaining this price and establishing support at or above it, puts the market back on its path toward a major retracement price zone at 2.024 2.046. Watch for aggressive buying over 1.9797 or 1.9573 to trigger aggressive short covering. The best selling opportunity over the near term will be 2.024 2.046. Bears should remain patient at current levels waiting for the retracement or unless 1.9573 fails on a retest.

USD/CHF Friday's closing price reversal bottom was confirmed with vigor as new buying and short covering drove the market higher with conviction. In addition, the market did not retrace 50% on the downside, meaning shorts were taken by surprise. The current daily chart set-up indicates the potential for a rally to 1.116. Long-term traders should wait to sell 1.116 if possible. Counter-trend traders should look for a 50% pullback to 1.0893 to hold for a further rally.

USD/CAD The market took out short-term resistance at 1.008 indicating a rally to 1.0125 to 1.0185 is likely before encountering any strong selling. Look for a buy opportunity if the market pulls back to .9976. The trend is up, but could still trade choppy and two-sided.

NZD/USD The market appears to have formed a short term top with a retracement to .7674 - .7605 likely. This is not a change in trend so bulls should look for a buying opportunity in this zone. Regaining .7936 on a closing basis or breaking .7966 on an intra day basis will put the market back on target for a test of .8107.

AUD/USD The RBA hiked rates, but the market failed to move higher. The close under the old top at .9017 indicates more selling to follow. Look for a pullback to .8805 - .8736 for the next buying opportunity.

DISCLAIMER: Forex (off-exchange foreign currency futures and options or FX) trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The value of currencies may fluctuate and investors may lose all or more than their original investments. Risks also include, but are not limited to, the potential for changing political and/or economic conditions that may substantially affect the price and/or liquidity of a currency. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. The leveraged nature of FX trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds and such may work against you as well as for you. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise or guarantee from B.I.G. Forex, LLC and Brewer Investment Group, LLC or its subsidiaries and/or affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of positions such as "spread" or "straddle" trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information contained in this correspondence is intended for informational purposes only and was obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

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