USDCHF Barclays decline of 21% in second half profits caused a sell-off in high-yield assets, which prompted an early rise in the Swiss Francs versus the Dollar. The market traded sideways the rest of the day in NY. Bank issues should continue to weigh on this market as the main trend remains down and the fundamentals are supportive for more selling pressure. Disappointing retail sales also pressured the CHF most of the day.

Technical Commentary: The USDCHF held the 50% support at 1.091. A failure to hold this price could trigger further selling to the .618 retrace at 1.087. The main trend turns up on a move through 1.110. Until this occurs, look for selling pressure from the bears especially if the market retraces again to 1.091 and fails. We are at a critical point on the charts. Holding in this area could set the tone for months while any sign of weakness sets off another aggressive round of selling. Short-term resistance could halt any soft rally at 1.099.

USDCAD Lower than expected Wholesale Sales and slowing core inflation caused weakness in the Canadian Dollar. The size of the move coupled with Friday's late session rally indicates that with inflation under control, the Bank of Canada is likely to take advantage of this situation by cutting rates aggressively. The next key meeting is March 4. Any bearish reports prior to this meeting could trigger a surprise emergency cut.

Technical Commentary: The main trend turned up on the trade through 1.013. This puts the market in a position to challenge the .618 retracement at 1.019. The key is to begin to build support at 1.013 to support the next move up. A further breakout could attract more buying and short covering launching a move to the next level at 1.037. On the downside, with the main trend up, look for buyers to step in following a pullback to 1.004.

AUDUSD The AUD continues to be one of the best performers worldwide as talk of interest rate hikes in March and again in June fueled speculative buying. Besides pricing in two cuts between now and June, chatter surfaced on Tuesday that the RBA is prepared to raise rates aggressively by as much as 50 bps. This news arrives on the heels of a positive economic outlook for the Australian economy.

Technical Commentary: The breakout over .9099 indicates a test of .9399 is likely. Given the short term overbought condition, a pullback to .9055 could occur. Strong buying is likely to come in at this price. The fundamentals are forecasting a long-term technical rally.

NZDUSD The rosy outlook in the economy is supportive for the NZD at this time. Continue to watch for this market to piggyback the strong gains in the AUD.

Technical Commentary: The NZD took out four tops and surged to the upside in a technical breakout. The next upside target is .8108. Look for support at the old high at .7966.

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