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The sole fundamental we await for in the US session today is the trade balance numbers for the month of March. Expectations are that the deficit had narrowed to 61.4 billion down from 62.3 billion in February, yet reading into those projections it has its supporting arguments and as well its naysayer.

Now to read into the data the advanced GDP estimate for the first quarter showed that the contribution from exports had actually narrowed from the fourth quarter. Exports are sought by the Feds to be a key economic driver as the depreciating dollar will help make American goods more tempting and competitive abroad as strong demand from emerging and oil nations still seem reluctant to wither against the financial turmoil.

While at the same time we find that inventories are soaring which as well added falsely to the GDP which is a defining factor that industries are to slow further production as the cost of retaining high inventories is the last thing they need since they are suffering with low domestic demand, which proves another support argument for the narrowing GDP that actually demand in the US itself is falling behind as the economy slows, and that might lead us to see specifically narrowing deficit with China.

Now to the other predicament of all nations, OIL, now the oil trade deficit has been widening especially as oil prices skyrocket. In March though we have seen oil imports soften lightly for a very strong reason which is the summer maintenance time for US refineries which is the period that usually demand slows as gradually the shift from heating oil to gasoline begins, so demand on oil was not as high and it is a seasonally known to be a dry season.

Rising oil price that have just peaked to new records at $124 a barrel are an ache to both policy makers as it is a key inflationary threat to economic stability, and as well a key dampening demand to consumers as they struggle to maintain their living standards as the labor market is shrinking in the US that is still even more pressuring to them to go on shopping sprees and helps further dampen imports!

So there you have it oil has much to do with today's figures, and if that happens to be true then we are to see the dollar battered more by woes and oil supported further by the allegation of demand and supply theories, and if imports combined with oil have slowed again no support much for the dollar will be seen, the only aspect to strongly support the dollar will be a significant rise in exports which might support revisions to GDP inputs and that is what may or may not move markets today, as we all have learned this the hard way the end of the week with not much to be released players take the lead to move and shake as they please and they have already started to show that as they dump their risky holdings and buy back the funding low yielding yen

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