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Economic jolt from quake seen as limited



By ELAINE KURTENBACH, AP
13 May 2008 @ 02:03 am EST

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Sichuan is one of China's most heavily populated provinces, and although it is far inland, past policies promoting industrialization away from coastal areas mean the region does have many factories.

However, Sichuan and the adjacent industrial center of Chongqing account for only about 3.5 percent of the country's total manufacturing and a minuscule 1 percent of total exports, according to Mingchun Sun, a Lehman Brothers economist.

China's steaming economy cooled only slightly in the first quarter despite the storms and global gloom, expanding by 10.6 percent in January-March from a year earlier. That compared with expansion of 11.2 percent in the previous quarter.

Yet, China is struggling to contain inflation that remains near decade-high levels, and the earthquake could increase those pressures,

Sichuan produces about 9 percent of China's total rice harvest, and given recent worries over shortages and surging prices, the disaster could fuel panic buying that would drive prices higher, Sun wrote in a report released Tuesday.

While many in China were just beginning to tally the damage from the quake, others were already reckoning on the potential opportunities from the knowledge that every disaster brings a period of reconstruction.

In Tokyo, shares in bulldozer and other heavy equipment makers rose on expectations of higher demand due to the cleanup and rebuilding from the quake.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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