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Technicals

DAILY TECHNICAL STRATEGIST

GBPUSD: Recovers Slowly But Remains Biased To The Downside
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16 May 2008 @ 05:27 am EST
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GBPUSD: A second day of higher closes has seen the pair follow through to the upside in early trading today but as long as the new recovery remains contained by the 1.9598 level, its April 1508 low, GBP should head lower again towards the 1.9360/35 area, marking its 2008 lows and then the 1.9180 level, its Mar 0407 low. Weekly momentum indicators remain suggestive of further strength. On the upside, clearing the 1.9598 level should propel the pair higher aiming at the 1.9727/19 area, its Mar 0508/April 0108 lows initially and next the 1.9963/ 2.0026 levels, its Feb 2708/April 21 & 2808 highs. Further gains could trigger upmove towards the 2.0191 level, its Mar 2708 high and ultimately its Mar 1408 high at 2.0396.All in all, downside bearishness remains in place though a nearer term corrective recovery is now shaping up.

Support Comments

1.9360/35 2008 lows.

1.9180 Mar 0407 low

1.8902 Weekly 200 Ema

Resistance Comments

1.9598 April 1508 low

1.9674/53 April 2508 low/Aug 1707 high

1.9727/19 Mar 0508/April 0108 lows

1.9963/2.0026 Feb 2708/April 21 & 2808 highs

Daily Chart:GBPUSD

EURUSD: While ST Risk Continues To Point Lower, Nearer Term Recovery Is Now Hesitating.

EURUSD: Although the pairs current recovery off the 1.5383 low may have some way to go, as long as the said corrective upside gains are limited to the 1.5593 level, its May 0608 high and the 1.5710 level, its April 1808 low risk to downside remains with the 1.5360/41 area, its May 0208/Mar 2408 lows/.382 Ret (1.4438-1.6018 rally) and its May 0808 low at 1.5283 seen as downside objectives. Below the latter will open the door for further downside weakness towards the 1.5164 level, its .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high) and then its .618 Ret at 1.5048.This view remains supported by its weekly studies.However,if the 1.5710 level is taken out, downside pressure will be minimized bringing more upside gains towards the 1.5895/I 5912 area, its Mar 3108 high/April 1008 high and even higher. On the whole, while the broader bias remains to the upside, current price action still suggests a bearish short term trend.

Support Comments

1.5360/41 .382 Fib Ret/Mar 2408 low/May 0208

1.5164 .50 Ret (1.4309-1.6018 high)

1.5048 .618 Ret

Resistance Comments

1.5593 May 0608 high

1.5626/00 April 0708 low/Psycho Level

1.5710 April 1808 low

1.5895/I 5912 Mar 3108 high/April 1008 High

Daily Chart:EURUSD

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