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James A. Hyerczyk

EURUSD Turns the Trend Up on Surging Crude and Falling Consumer Confidence

Commodity Trading Advisor registered with the National Futures Association

16 May, 2008 @ 06:55 pm EST
James A. Hyerczyk
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The USDCAD broke hard to the downside on the surging crude oil market. The combination of higher commodity prices and an improving Canadian economy have proved bearish for the USD against the Canadian Dollar.

Technically the market reached a key retracement price at .9945 and attracted some buying. The rally was just enough to post a daily reversal up. A follow through rally is needed on Monday to confirm the reversal bottom at .9942 and trigger a retracement to 1.0092.

AUDUSD Makes 24-Year High

The AUDUSD rallied to a new 24-year high after breaking out over a down trending Gann angle at .9459, which had been holding the market down since April 23.

Two main swing tops at .9510 and .9544 were also taken out in the rally.

Commodity exports account for a large percentage of the Australian economy so the higher the crude moves, the more likely the uptrend is going to continue. Expect to see a comment from the Reserve Bank of Australia concerning a possible surprise rate hike to stem the currency volatility.

Oversold Technical Conditions Fuel NZDUSD Rally

The NZDUSD confirmed its reversal bottom from the May 15 bottom at .7536. The first objective at .7736 was met on a strong up move due to oversold conditions and short covering.

The trend is still down so the market may back off from here with a possible break back to 76.40 for a counter-trend buying opportunity.

Please do not hesitate to contact us at 800-971-2440, with any questions.

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