Oregon race could spell end of Schumer streak

Merkley, for his part, stresses his progressive credentials and accomplishments in the state House, where he led Democrats to reclaim the majority in 2006. He reminds voters that Novick, for all his outsider appeal, is a veteran political consultant who has worked for some of the most prominent Democrats in the state.

"While Steve has been advising campaigns and taking potshots at everybody available, I've been in the trenches fighting battles and winning time and time again," he said.

Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts said Novick appears to have a slight advantage, but added, "This race is very much up in the air." A recent poll by Hibbitts showed a whopping 43 percent of voters were undecided.

The closeness of the race should not be surprising, Hibbitts said. While Merkley is considered the establishment candidate, neither man is well-known. Both started the race with less than 10 percent name recognition in the state.

Even in recent weeks, the Senate race has received less attention than usual because so much media and voter attention is focused on the presidential primary.

Still, Hibbitts said the close Democratic contest should not give Smith much comfort in a year where Democrats appear poised to make gains in both the House and Senate.

"What you are seeing nationally is the same thing we are seeing in Oregon: a literal collapse of the Republican brand," Hibbitts said, citing last week's Democratic victory in a Mississippi House district long held by Republicans.

Whether it's Merkley or Novick, "Democrats have a real shot out here," Hibbitts said. "When you have a stampede going on, a lot of people get trampled."

(This version CORRECTS the name of the group to Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.)