Summer may bring a turning point for stock market

Nine of the 12 Fed districts surveyed in March said that economic growth slowed because of anemic real estate markets and a slowdown in consumer spending. It showed the economy was certainly troubled, but not plunging.

Of course, Wall Street always pays close attention to economic reports, and was doing so long before the credit crisis. But the data takes on greater significance when many investors have put their cash on the sidelines and are deciding to put it back into the market -or to leave it there and take even more money out of stocks if the numbers point to a continuing slump or if they're inconclusive.

Along with Wall Street, the Fed will be parsing the data. But the central bank itself will be one of the most crucial economic indicators when it meets again June 24-25 -Wall Street wants the Fed to provide a stronger sign that it feels April's quarter-point cut of the fed funds rate will be the last, and that the economy is back on track for growth.

And analysts like Kotok are betting that the Fed's efforts to energize the economy have worked -and that will give the market permission to charge ahead.

"Our view is the Fed will succeed because it has the power to do so, and it has now caught on to the fact that this is serious," he said. "The stock market is anticipating it, and confirmation of this might not be that far off."