Analyst boosts estimates for Advance Auto Parts

Matthew J. Fassler raised his 2008 earnings estimated by 11 cents to $2.76 per share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect a profit of $2.59 per share. He also boosted his price target for the company by $5 to $45.

"This forecast is conservative based on first-quarter trends, and on the typical relationship of first-quarter results to full year results," Fassler wrote in a note to investors.

"But we are holding back any additional upside given the fragile macro backdrop, the risk of margin pressure from an ongoing mix shift toward commercial, and management's willingness to invest some portion of excess profits back into the business."

Advance Auto said Thursday that it posted a first-quarter profit of 86 cents per share, beating average analysts' estimates by 8 cents.

Fassler also raised his 2009 earnings prediction by 11 cents to $2.76 per share and 2010 estimate by 10 cents to $3.45 per share. Analysts, on average, expect per-share profits of $2.86 in 2009 and $3.22 in 2010.

Advance Auto shares rose 38 cents to $39.20 in afternoon trading.