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Dish Network drops after AT&T says deal to end



By AP
02 July 2008 @ 06:21 pm EST

NEW YORK - Dish Network Corp.'s shares dropped Wednesday after the satellite television company reported that AT&T Inc. is ending an agreement to market its programming services, although analysts disagree on whether the partnership is truly over.

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DISH 27.75 -0.01
ATT 25.45 0.07
DTV 26.57 -0.22

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Dish shares fell $2.20, or 7.6 percent, to $26.91. The stock has traded between $25.72 and $42.78 during the past 52 weeks.

In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing late Tuesday, Dish said the agreement will conclude at the end of the year. The agreement dates back to 2003.

In a note to investors Wednesday, Lehman Brothers analyst Vijay Jayant said that AT&T's notice of termination does not necessarily mean that the company has not selected Dish as its satellite partner going forward. He said AT&T is "just protecting its option to switch, if it wants to, without a major delay."

The analyst, who said Dish remains the likely partner, maintained his "Overweight" rating on the stock.

If the partnership ends, Jayant expects Dish's new customer sign-ups to decline and its churn, or customer cancellations, to increase.

Sanford Bernstein analyst Craig E. Moffett said in a note to investors the agreement with AT&T likely contributes as much as 15 percent of Dish's gross customer additions. He called the announcement a "heavy blow" to Dish.

Citi analyst Jason B. Bazinet said he expects AT&T to negotiate with both Dish and rival DirecTV Group Inc. "in good faith" and said it is "still too early to count Dish out of the running." He maintained a "Buy" rating on Dish shares.

Kaufman Bros. analyst Todd Mitchell was less optimistic about Dish's chances. "Dish has likely lost AT&T for good, but it is not over until it's over," he said.

"If Dish loses AT&T, we think it is a safe bet that DirecTV gets it, effectively shutting Dish out of all but the small rural telcos," Mitchell said.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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