Sector Preview: June same-store sales seen up

Many major retailers report June sales in stores open at least one year, a key retail metric known as same-store sales, on Thursday.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expect same-store sales rose 2.6 overall in June, compared with 2.4 percent a year ago.

Big-format discount stores and warehouse clubs are still expected to be the strongest performers, while department stores will be weaker, analysts say.

"June sales results will be better than expectations as tax-rebate checks, compelling offers and better weather led to a relatively good month for the retailers," wrote Jefferies & Co. analyst Daniel Binder in a note to investors on Tuesday. He covers broadline retailers including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. "Seasonal goods, such as air conditioners and summer clothing appeared to perform better than in May."

Wachovia Capital markets analyst Peter Benedict said Wal-Mart and possibly BJ's could update earnings guidance when they report same-store sales, due to their strong trends in the quarter to date.

In the specialty sector, children and teen retailers are expected to outperform women's and men's apparel, which continues to be hurt by the weak consumer environment.

"For June, we expect Aeropostale Inc. and The Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. to report strong sales results (partially aided by easy comparisons) and continue to maintain our below-consensus expectations for Men's Warehouse Inc.," wrote Wedbush Morgan Securities analyst Betty Chen in a note on Tuesday.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Howard Tubin also expects Aeropostale to be one of the few mall-based players to report positive same-store sales.

"A better balance of fashion and basic merchandise coupled with a strong value message continues to drive positive results," he wrote in a note on Monday.

As rebate-tax checks wane in July, however, analysts are concerned that results might not be sustainable.

"Looking forward, in our view, it will be imperative to track how the consumer holds up post the rebate checks, which unfortunately coincides with the beginning of the back-to-school period," wrote JPMorgan analyst Charles Grom in a note Monday. "If we do see another step-down in consumer behavior, second-half estimates will be at risk almost across the board."