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Fundamentals

Market lacks conviction

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09 July 2008 @ 06:16 am EST
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The dollar will gain some further support if there is a sustained decline in commodity prices, but strong buying looks unlikely

The dollar again found support close to the 1.5750 region against the Euro on Tuesday and strengthened to highs around 1.5640 in US trading. US pending home sales fell 4.7% in May after a revised 7.1% increase previously. The decline will reinforce expectations that a significant near-term housing recovery is unlikely, but should not have a major market impact.

Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested that the Fed could extend US banks access to the discount window beyond the end of 2008 while the facility could also be broadened. This provided some degree of support to the banking sector with greater confidence that the Fed would take measures to underpin liquidity and reduced fear over a further deterioration in conditions. This improved sentiment on Wall Street which also helped underpin the dollar as risk appetite recovered.

The US currency also drew support from a sharp decline in oil prices towards US$135 per barrel during the day, although the currency impact from energy prices was less than seen over the previous few weeks.

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