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James A. Hyerczyk

Dollar Falls on Concerns a Slowdown in U.S. Growth May Deepen

Commodity Trading Advisor registered with the National Futures Association

21 Jul, 2008 @ 09:43 pm EST
James A. Hyerczyk
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The EUR USD traded mostly steady throughout the day until American Express announced that profits had decreased 37 percent. This news rekindled concerns that a slow down in U.S. growth may deepen as more consumers defaulted on loans. Also helping boost the Euro was a stronger oil complex.

Starting tomorrow, traders may begin to focus on U.S. New and Existing Home Sales which are due July 24 and July 25. Expectations are for both to decline. The Durable Goods will also be watched on July 25 to see if there has been a slow down in major purchases by consumers. Traders are looking for a decline of 0.3%.

Talk is circulating that the ECB is concerned about inflationary risks caused by surging oil prices. Despite an economic slow down in the Euro Zone, ECB members remain hawkish toward interest rates.

Technically, the EUR USD is holding up trending support at 1.5842. The key area on the upside that has to be overcome is 1.5938 to 1.5940.

The USD JPY struggled all day to stay positive, but the selloff late in the day in the stock market caused weak longs to liquidate into the close. Bearish news from American Express helped fuel concerns that the financial sector is still in trouble.

Technically, going home on Friday, the USD JPY looked as if it was ready to take off to the upside, but down trending resistance at 106.96 and 107.06 prevented the market from posting solid gains. When it was clear this area was being defended by the bears, bids dried up and the market broke. The key downside target is 105.76 today. A trade to this price is the best buy today.

Although a report showed that U.K. housing prices dropped in July for the first time since at least 2002, the GBP USD could not break on the news. Additionally, a comment from Bank of England policy maker David Blanchflower that the U.K. was entering a recession that could last for at least a year could not awaken sellers either. The inability to break this market on bad news is indicating that perhaps the U.S. financial problems may be worse than reported.

Technically, this market is holding up trending support at 1.9948. This angle is controlling the short-term direction. On the upside, the best resistance is at 2.0057 to 2.0061.

The USD CHF traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as the stock market sat in a tight range for most of the day. Late weakness in the stock market set up this pair for selling pressure into the close. Swiss producer prices beat expectations while the real estate index of family homes showed a gain. These two reports counteracted the report last week that investor confidence in the economy was at its lowest level ever. The producer price and real estate index reports may be just the news this market needs as a reason to prevent the Swiss central bank from raising rates in the near term. The daily chart is indicating resistance at 1.0271. Based on the weak close, look for a pullback to 1.0134 to 1.0110.

The USD CAD felt downside pressure from higher oil prices and a weaker stock market. The crude oil rise should be of some concern as this market did not follow through to the downside after last week's sharp break. Its chart indicates the potential for another $5.00 rally before it finds resistance. This could mean a sharply lower USD CAD market over the next few days. On the daily chart, this market is finding solid resistance at a 50% price at 1.0071. The close was under a Fib retracement price at 1.0011 indicating weakness. Resistance drops to 1.0038. Look for this market to pressure .9974 to maintain its downtrend.

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