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Ahead of the Bell: Ctrip.com



By AP
13 August 2008 @ 08:38 am EST

NEW YORK - Ctrip.com International Ltd. shares may be active in trading Wednesday ahead of the Chinese online travel company's second-quarter report, which a Piper Jaffray analyst expects will miss Wall Street estimates.

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CTRP 19.83 -0.54

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Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect a profit of 20 cents per U.S.-traded share on $53.8 million in revenue. But in a Wednesday client note, Piper Jaffray analyst Michael J. Olson said he still expects Ctrip to miss Wall Street views due to the impact from the May earthquake in western China.

The company is expected to report after trading ends Wednesday.

Olson, who rates the stock "Neutral" with a $45 price target, said the number of kilometers flown by paying passengers of airlines China Southern and Air China declined 1 percent year over year in the second quarter.

"This is the first time since the SARS issues in 2003 that China Airline traffic data has turned negative," he said.

The analyst also expects Ctrip's third-quarter outlook to be below expectations because of a prolonged impact from travel restrictions through mid-September related to the Olympic Games and Paralympics.

Analysts are looking for third-quarter earnings of 24 cents per share on $61.6 million in revenue.

Also Wednesday, Citi Investment Research analyst Catherine Leung--who rates the stock "Buy" with a $78 price target--said she expects $53.7 million in revenue and earnings of 21 cents per share.

"While legitimate concerns over weakening fundamentals in the slowing China travel market have weighed on shares since Ctrip gave soft (second-quarter) revenue guidance in mid-May, we believe the risk-reward going into (the second-quarter) has improved considerably as Street expectations have come down materially in the past three weeks," she said.

In May, Ctrip predicted second-quarter revenue growth of 30 percent year over year.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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