History Doesn't Repeat, but It Does Rhyme

• Print
• E-Mail

However, from a longer-term perspective, silver has retraced 50 percent of the major move from the November 2001 lows to the March highs, and this would be a perfect place for this market to find support.

Weekly Silver

Consider this: It was a similar collapse that formed the bottom last year, almost to the day, Aug. 16, 2007.

December 2007 Silver

My point here is to remember Mark Twain’s words.

Let’s now turn to corn, another market that’s shed blood lately.

First, I’ll tell you a story about the 1995 bearish crop report that lead to the development of certain trading rules regarding market action and corresponding market news.

We were moving from Minnesota to Lake Tahoe, driving along Interstate 80 on the day of the report, Aug. 11, 1995. I had a large, long position in December corn. At that time, the crop looked good and nobody anticipated that the final crop would be smaller. I must have had my reasons for being long, but my hopes were dashed following the report’s release.

I remember calling my assistant from the road when he told me, "Limit down." The crop report was so bearish, describing the early calls for the upcoming crop. The market was expected to open below the 10-cent-per-bushel limit.

The early banter was the market would open limit down and "lock," meaning I could get stuck in my position with only offers to sell limit down and no bids at that price. I sweat out the remaining 90 minutes prior to the market’s open, trying to decide how I could get out of this mess from the road. I asked my assistant to call me right before the market opened to give me a blow-by-blow.

________________________________________

Invest With the Pentagon in Strategic Resource Plays for Guaranteed Profits

If you invest in resources nations have to have, then you’re almost guaranteed to make profits.