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A Busy Day...

21 Aug, 2008 @ 03:48 am ET | written by ecPulse.com


Markets participants are heading their attention today to the calendars filling the economies; manufacturing, services, retail sales, and the Philadelphia feds are the main highlight.

So let's just start with the Euro Zone...

After markets witnessed the contraction that took place in the second quarter resulting from the surging oil and Euro prices, not believing that those two main factors would retract output severely at the time when Germany the largest European Industrial economy did not face shrinkage in their manufacturing or services sector, but the increasing demand of imports in the zone besides to the falling exports had released to a this imbalance in the growth equation.

But with oil prices easing in late July and the beginning of August after it reached a high above $147 per barrel, the levels oil reached had eased down the tension on the industrialized economies, as they are not facing lower energy bills which would cut down some their expenses, and going through the cycle the manufacturers wont be thinking about hiking their prices just to compensate part of the losses that halted upon them.

Analysts still predict that the gauge of manufacturing would indicate that growth in the still is still tumbling, with Germany facing a plunging production to 50.5 in August from the previous 50.9, where the overall zone will be dipping more in contraction reaching 47.0 levels, but logically if we believe that commodity prices were the main reason behind the past levels then we have to predict some improvement today.

Not just the Manufacturing, the services sector which measures the levels in Germany, France, Ireland, Italy and Spain, as those countries combined indicate to about 4/5 of the total services, shows that overall union reading would be heading to 48.0 levels falling 0.3 from previous, where Germany PMI services might be falling a whole point from 53.1 to 52.1 levels.

Moving the United Kingdom...

Spending in the Kingdom is tumbling, fear is spreading in the royal lands, the rising consumer prices and the slowing growth is curbing sales, with demand slowing the retail sales reading for the July might have fallen 0.2% from the previous fall of 3.9% on the month, on the year expectations that growth plunged to a rise of 1.8% from a 2.2% rise in the June.

If sales fall heavily affected by a slowing demand, retails will start facing harsh losses which would result to slowing production eventually contributing in anchoring overall output, the Kingdom would them see what Mervin king said that growth might flatten in the upcoming period especially next year.

So it's not just falling retail sales or slower spending, business investment in the kingdom are plunging too, private firms are not considering to enlarge their capital expenditure, as they don't see in the current situation any chance that they will be facing higher profits due the slowing consumer demand. The quarterly total business investments in the second quarter might fall 0.7% from the previous fall of 1.8%, the yearly investments will be rising just 3.1% from the previous rise of 4.5% in the first quarter.

Finally getting to the United States, who they are the main reason behind what all is occurring in the world from turbulences...

Manufacturing in Philadelphia would continued to fall for the ninth consecutive month, the median estimate indicates that the production fell to 12.6 below the zero barrier, yet it might come better than the previous fall of 16.3 in July when oil prices recorded a high above $147 per barrel levels.

The fear that production will continue falling, affected by the sluggish demand from consumer as they have no money left especially after the rebates effected is fading away, leaving the feds with fewer instrument to use in order to salvage their economy.

But the issue did not end at the slowing demand, the Americans did not find the bottom of the housing slump yet, as we all witnessing the housing starts falling before two days to the lowest in 17 years.

Also the turbulence in the financial sector is not over yet, as markets just waiting till mid September to see if Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would be able to pay their debt, as the upcoming month would be critical on those two governmental back up mortgage firms. So if those two firms the turbulence will spread vastly in the States but at the time being markets participants are being really cautious taking no vast movement fearing the highly volatility taking place.

SO finally my dear reader lets see what will happen in the Zone, Royal land, and States so we can then build up our predictions of who will survive and who will fall down with no signs of recovery any time soon...

For more forex information, go to www.ecpulse.com

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