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Correction to gold bear market or something more positive?

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21 August 2008 @ 11:22 am EST
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Gold prices hit a 10-day high on Thursday, fortified by investor buying as oil prices rose, the dollar slipped, equities fell and on expectations of strong physical demand over coming months.

Gold rose to $839.00 an ounce, the highest since August 11, and was up at $837.90/839.90 an ounce at 1453 GMT from $810.35/811.75 an ounce late in New York on Wednesday.

A softer dollar and geo-political concerns were the key drivers behind the short-term correction within what is an overall bear market, said Dresdner Kleinwort consultant Peter Fertig.

"In the medium term, the dollar is going to strengthen again against the euro and that is going to weigh, not only on crude oil, but also on gold," he said.

Oil rose to over $121 a barrel after Russia responded angrily to a U.S. missile shield agreement with Poland, raising the threat of a supply disruption from the huge energy producer.

"Oil prices at current levels could attract further investment fund flows into precious metals," Standard Bank said in a note, adding that technical signals indicated precious metals were due for a correction.

The firmer dollar in recent months has pulled gold down by around 20 percent from its all-time high of $1,030.80 an ounce hit in March, and a lower price has attracted buying.

Demand for gold in top consumer India fell sharply after prices hit a record but as the country heads into the festival and wedding season, demand will rise.

"There are signs that physical demand is rising sharply in response to low prices," said Eugen Weinberg, commodities analyst at Commerzbank.

"Indian jewellers, for example, are paying far bigger premiums to gold importers in order to meet the rise in demand.

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