A Flock of Ospraies

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"The key relative call from here is clearly consumer versus commodity," said Cazenove hedge fund managers Chris Rice and Steve Cordell in a note to investors. "For the last five years it has been a one-way bet, but now the tide is turning ... In twelve months the chances of (British fashion retailer) Next ( outperforming (mining group) BHP Billiton are very high."

Looks like 'subprime' might be replaced by something new in the lexicon shortly. Someone is working on a clever word already. Danger also lurks in the presence of the 650-ton gold ETF (about half or more of which is likely hedge fund money) in the room, as it creates a potential supply overhang threat which India - even with its best 100 ton per month intentions - cannot possibly overcome. As one observer put it today, there is one escape clause in the price equation that is shaping up here. That clause: a repeat of October 1987. Faites Vos Jeux, S'il Vous Plait. Then, roll the dice, please.

Happy Trading.