Price: 1.1877

Bias: I look for 1.1932-58 to cap for losses below 1.1774-00 to extend losses to 1.1666 and 1.1550

Daily Bullish:

While I am rather annoyed that we saw the break above 1.1931 the cap just below the next major resistance at 1.2010 with bearish divergences in hourly and 4-hour charts really argues for the high having been seen. Thus only back above 1.1958 would risk a move back to 1.1999-10. We still need to be careful there. Only breach will provoke a further extension to the 1.2093 target. Also note the 1.2149 resistance.

MT Bullish:

10th November: Price has struggled to push high and thus only above 1.1799 would suggest there is a stronger risk of a move to the 1.1890-06 and possibly 1.1957. Take care as this could cap. Next resistance lies at 1.2010.

Daily Bearish:

I feel yesterday's high satisfies the 1.2010 reserve target and with bearish divergences now ranging from hourly through to even the weekly chart I am expecting losses to now develop. I suspect the 1.1932-58 area will capand generate a reversal back below 1.1824 to 1.1774-00 at least. Take a little care here in case we see a correction. However, I feel the stronger argument will be for direct losses towards 1.1666 where a correction can again be seen. The eventual target is expected to stall close to the 1.1549 low.

MT Bearish:

14th November: While we had to suffer a test to the higher 1.2010 target I feel this has reached its conclusion and thus a move back below 1.1774 should see losses to 1.1550-99 initially from where we should see a pullback.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

13th November:

We have reached the 1.1890-06 target area and while this is not a quite a 100% solid target there are sufficient indications from several areas to treat this with respect. This resistance is also marked by a daily pivot resistance.

Only above the wave equality target of the 1.1723-1.1894 rally from yesterday's 1.1760 corrective low at 1.1931 would suggest an attack on the 76.4% projection in Wave (v) at 1.2010. We should also note the daily wave equality target at 1.2093.

A break below the 1.1760 Wave b low would open the way for losses to the prior Wave (b) at 1.1550.

14th November:

We saw a move to the 76.4% projection in Wave (v) at 1.2010 and this should provide the conclusion to larger Wave (C) higher. The normal initial retracement will move close to the prior Wave b (of Wave (v) ) which is seen at 1.1549.

I feel the 1.1824 low was Wave I and while Wave ii remains below the 61.8%-76.4% retracement at 1.1932-58 we should see follow-through to around 1.1666. Following a Wave iv we should see Wave v stall in the 1.1550-99 area.