Price: 0.6452

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Daily Bullish:

Yesterday saw most of the day generating steady gains that stalled at 0.6594. From there we have seen a fairly deep pullback and the depth concerns. However, while this morning's low at 0.6428 remains intact I still feel that the argument for a direct rally is possible. We shall need a quick break above 0.6468 followed by 0.6506 to provide the lift needed to extend the upside through 0.6534 and to the 0.6560-94 highs. Take care as this could cause a small correction. Above maintains gains for 0.6627 and 0.6662-92...

MT Bullish:

18th November: We really do need the 0.6357-70 lows to remain intact to retain a bullish stance. A break back above 0.6594 will assist for a retest of the 0.6692 high and probable follow-through for 0.6736 and 0.6789 at least. More distant targets lie at 0.6846 and 0.6981.

Daily Bearish:

While gains were seen yesterday these weren't too convincing and thus we should still keep an eye on key supports which appear to be at 0.6428 and then the 0.6357-70 low. A break of the higher 0.6428 low seen this morning will undermine the bullish structure and risk losses extending back to the 0.6350-70 low. If these give way then the implication appears to be for stronger losses to 0.6244-65 and quite possibly all the way to the next major support at 0.6141-51.

MT Bearish:

18th November: The 0.6350-70 low mark the break area for stronger losses that if breach is seen should generate stronger losses to 0.6141-51 at least. This should cause a pullback at least. Next support is at 0.6048.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

14th November:

The 0.6339 level is an approximate 66.7% retracement of the rally from 0.6006 to 0.7014. This mornings recovery does seem to have broken above the last swing high and thus the risk is that we have seen a base in Wave b-.

We should still be a little cautious at a potential 61.8% retracement in a Wave x at 0.6735 but once this is taken out it should imply an eventual move back to the area around the 0.7014 high in Wave i of Wave c-.

Only back below the 61.8%-66.7% retracement of this mornings rally at 0.6457-74 would risk a further test at 0.6339.

17th November:

While the pullback has been deep it hasnt yet broken below the 0.6338 low and until then the upside is still possible. A move back above 0.6692 would confirm additional gains to the 176.4% projection of the 0.6338-0.6692 rally which rests at 0.6846.

Below 0.6338 extends losses to the 76.4% retracement at 0.6244 and more likely the 176.4% projection in an alternate Wave iii- at 0.6141-51.