Price: 1.2600

Bias: We require a break above this morning's 1.2655 high to maintain gains for 1.2732 and 1.2855

Daily Bullish:

The 1.2417-33 support held well on Friday and does raise a stronger risk that we have seen the low in the larger picture. However, to confirm this we do still need a break above the 1.2655 high. Until then I see moderately strong support at 1.2564 and ideally I'd like this to hold. A subsequent move above 1.2637-55 would encourage extension above 1.2690 & 1.2732 at least. My preference will be for direct follow-through for 1.2784 at least but we may see a minor correction from around here. Next rally should reach around 1.2855.

MT Bullish:

21st November: Well, we haven't yet broken below 1.2387 and while this continues there is still chance we'll see a reversal higher. However, it will take an initial break above 1.2602-35 followed by 1.2723 which should bring more confidence in extension back to the 1.2813-55 highs.

Daily Bearish:

While we saw minor breach of 1.2635 the failure to break through 1.2655 means we really need to be open to alternative scenarios. There is support around 1.2564 and ideally I'd like this to support. Thus only breach of this level would cause additional losses through 1.2534 and 1.2481-95 at least and I suspect the 1.2440 area. Take care around here as this could imply a larger consolidation. Breach of 1.2422 would imply a more bearish picture for below 1.2387 and to retest the 1.2328 low.

MT Bearish:

21st November: We are at a crucial crossroads between bullish and bearish structures and break of 1.2387-17 would confirm a move to the 1.2328-36 low and then probably further to 1.2186-04, 1.2099 & 1.2042-48 en route 1.1866-85.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

20th November:

The basic idea of an initial rally followed by a reversal was correct. However, failure to reach 1.2855 rules out a flat correction and thus we are either in a deep Wave ii or break of 1.2328 will mean a larger extension lower and thus the 138.2% projection in larger Wave (C) at 1.1885 and a 161.8% projection in Wave -c- at 1.1866.

However, I don't really find it easy to fit the wave structure since the 1.3297 high into the stronger bearish picture... Thus I remain cautiously in favor of the deep Wave ii and thus it should imply a base above the Wave -b- low at 1.2387. I guess there may be a risk that we are just seeing a deeper Wave -b- that should remain above 1.2328 but the moves from 1.2855 don't really support this...

24th November:

The crucial support is now being tested and the 1.2387-17 area seems to be the critical area to break to continue losses to the 1.1866-85 target (at least).

A break now back above this morning's 1.2655 high would provide the impetus for stronger gains in a minor Wave iii higher. Any loss of 1.2564 would raise the risk of a triangle

Wave ii with Wave ^c likely to reach around 1.2440-50.