Price: 1.2417

Bias: While 1.2370 supports I feel the risk is still for slow gains to 1.2553 at least

Daily Bullish:

Price saw gains as expected which stalled just below the 1.2476 peak. While the 1.2370 pivot area supports we can see this gradual rally continue. A break above this morning's high at 1.2449 should retest Friday's 1.2465 high and also push through to extend gains to 1.2499-20 and probably the 1.2553 area. Take care around here as this may cap. Only breach would extend gains to the next resistance at 1.2598 which may hold. Next resistance then lies at 1.2633-54.

MT Bullish:

1st December: I wish to take a more cautious approach to the upside. Certainly I feel we'll see a test of the 1.2553 area at least. However, only above here would argue for stronger gains to 1.2598 and probably the 1.2633-54 area en route 1.2782.

Daily Bearish:

Gains have been painful to watch and I am becoming less bullish. However, I do feel we should see a move to the 1.2553 area but watch this closely. Any signs of a cap would suggest that we have merely seen a correction and thus the downside will become vulnerable again. A break below 1.2370 would assist the downside while break of 1.2320 and 1.2275 would herald stronger losses back to the 1.2123 low initially.

MT Bearish:

1st December: Take care here but while the 1.2553-98 area caps there is risk of losses developing that would quickly push the 1.2123 low. If this breaks it opens up much stronger losses.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

1st December:

While I cannot say the bullish wave structure has been broken the gains seen from the 1.1458 low have not really shown much power. We should watch the 50% retracement at 1.2553 and 61.8% at 1.2653.While these cap it would actually prefer a more bearish structure. Thus the next day or two are going to be crucial here.

For the upside to prove itself we shall need a stronger rally very, very quickly. A break above the 50% retracement at 1.2553 will help but then we should note the 61.8% retracement at 1.2654. We should also be aware of the potential bullish projections of the 1.2123 to 1.2364 move in which a 176.4% projection lies at 1.2633 and above there and 1.2654 a 238.2% projection lies at 1.2782. If seen this will be in Wave iii higher.

Any earlier failure at 1.2553 (and max 1.2654) would suggest that we are seeing a correction in a potential Wave -b- and subsequent break below 1.2370 and 1.2275 would add weight to us seeing a Wave -c- lower and below 1.1458...