Uranium stocks: Bear market's hot corner

But where the top 100 have moved up 30% from recent lows, uranium stocks have gained an average of 51%, led by the likes of Uranium One (up 102%), which last month put on care-and-maintenance its loss making Dominion mine in South Africa, but is making good money from its growing operations in Kazakhstan. Junior stocks have also been rising, led by Hathor Exploration, which has risen more than 400% from its lows, on successes at its properties in the Athabasca region of Saskatchewan.

At this juncture, gold stocks offer the best competition for uranium stocks; at 25% off its highs, dollar gold bullion has fallen the least among major commodities. Pricing of uranium oxide, or yellowcake, the underlying commodity for listed uranium stocks, has been a very different story. Where gold and silver prices peaked in March this year, and crude oil in July, uranium oxide peaked, and popped, in June 2007.

There were several reasons for the construction of the uranium price bubble: the end of Russian dumping and lots of liquidity, provided mainly by hedge funds. Uranium prices moved up from record lows of USD 7/lb in 2001 to a peak of USD 136/lb in late June 2007, and fell to recent lows of USD 44/lb, but have moved up in recent weeks to around USD 55/lb.

Much like "gold bugs" that follow gold bullion (and sometimes gold stocks) wherever it goes, uranium is showing increasing indications of a growing fan club. Uranium, with the highest atomic weight among naturally occurring elements, is some 70% more dense than lead and weakly radioactive. Its key use in the civilian sector is to fuel commercial nuclear power stations. By the time it is fully fissioned, one kilogram of uranium-235 can (with the help of a power station) theoretically produce as much electricity as 1,500 tons of coal.

Uranium is defined as a silver-gray metallic chemical element, and is found in the actinide series of the periodic table, with the symbol of U and the atomic number 91.

Given the longer-term robust increase in power demands across the globe, nuclear power stations, seen as clean compared to coal-powered stations, remain a high priority for an increasing number of countries.

There have been other bubbles in uranium prices, such as the one driven by the Cold War, where the imperative was military rather than civilian. The US Congress passed the US Atomic Energy Act of 1946, creating the Atomic Energy Commission, with the power to withdraw prospective uranium mining land from public purchase, and also manipulate the price of uranium to meet "national needs".

By setting high prices, the AEC created a bubble in the early 1950s, attracting prospectors to every nook and cranny in the US. Moab, Utah was soon known as the uranium "capital" of the world. In due course, the bubble burst, but not before significant amounts of uranium had been upgraded to highly enriched uranium (HEU), mainly destined for military purposes.

In the modern era, uranium bulls have also pointed to the major downblending undertaking called the Megatons to Megawatts Program, which transforms ex-Soviet military-grade HEU to fuel for US commercial power stations. The goal has been to transform around 500 tons of HEU between 1995 and 2013. The downgraded material has so far been supplying at least 10% of annual commercial grade uranium. Global mining capacity for uranium oxide (yellowcake) is currently around 40,000 tons a year.

In its 2007 admission documents to London's AIM market, Niger Uranium put it this way: "The ending of the HEU deal between Russia and the United States in 2013 may prove to be a major turning point, and it is clear that primary production must increase substantially to make up the loss of this source of supply". If this prediction turns out to be on the right side of history, a good number of investors have already bought into it.

Patience may also pay; as Hathor Exploration points out, its land package was acquired when uranium was USD 7/lb: this early entry enabled the company to acquire strategic ground in close proximity to the uranium mines of Cameco, Areva and Denison.

Selected uranium stocks

Producers

Stock

From

From

Value

price

high*

low*

USD bn

Cameco

CAD 20.23

-54.5%

41.2%

5.939

ERA

AUD 16.18

-35.2%

73.0%

1.991

Paladin

AUD 2.19

-70.6%

34.4%

0.868

Uranium One

CAD 1.21

-87.4%

101.7%

0.456

Denison

CAD 0.95

-90.5%

9.2%

0.145

Producer averages/total

-67.6%

51.9%

9.399

Weighted averages

-61.2%

47.7%

Developers & other

First Uranium

CAD 1.77

-84.2%

73.5%

0.186

UEX

CAD 0.60

-92.7%

33.3%

0.088

Uranium Part.

CAD 7.02

-42.4%

56.0%

0.408

Summit Resources

AUD 1.89

-38.4%

42.1%

0.257

Mega Uranium

CAD 0.72

-81.8%

73.5%

0.108

Alliance Resources

AUD 0.43

-74.3%

50.9%

0.076

Bannerman

AUD 0.62

-85.0%

175.6%

0.060

Forsys

CAD 5.45

-12.0%

172.5%

0.338

Aurora Energy

CAD 1.03

-92.7%

24.1%

0.061

Laramide

CAD 0.86

-87.5%

41.0%

0.043

Mantra Resources

AUD 0.70

-82.5%

25.0%

0.036

Energy Metals

AUD 0.41

-73.9%

26.6%

0.031

Deep Yellow

AUD 0.12

-74.2%

17.3%

0.083

Extract Resources

AUD 0.94

-36.5%

70.9%

0.129

Strateco Resources

CAD 0.49

-84.9%

22.5%

0.047

Strathmore Minerals

CAD 0.24

-92.2%

46.9%

0.014

UR-Energy

CAD 0.70

-81.0%

105.9%

0.052

Thor Mining

AUD 0.03

-88.7%

4.0%

0.003

Uranium Resources

USD 0.47

-96.6%

4.4%

0.026

Uranerz

CAD 0.65

-81.7%

27.5%

0.029

Hathor Exploration

CAD 2.67

-39.3%

486.8%

0.177

Mineral Securities

GBP 0.29

-60.5%

1.8%

0.071

Marathon Resources

AUD 0.29

-88.6%

46.9%

0.016

Nufcor Uranium

GBP 1.15

-70.2%

53.8%

0.071

Kalahari Minerals

GBP 0.38

-19.4%

57.9%

0.094

Pan African

GBP 0.03

-65.6%

46.7%

0.045

Uranium Energy

USD 0.24

-94.0%

4.3%

0.011

West Aust. Metals

AUD 0.07

-81.8%

39.2%

0.015

Tournigan

CAD 0.18

-88.7%

24.1%

0.018

Scimitar Resources

AUD 0.13

-84.2%

25.0%

0.004

Vital Metals

AUD 0.07

-91.9%

40.0%

0.005

Southern Uranium

AUD 0.04

-80.9%

35.5%

0.003

Uranium Equities

AUD 0.06

-79.3%

20.0%

0.007

Black Range Minerals

AUD 0.02

-90.0%

36.4%

0.006

Berkeley Resources

GBP 0.10

-84.6%

0.0%

0.015

Xemplar Energy

CAD 0.18

-97.9%

50.0%

0.017

JNR Resources

CAD 0.23

-91.4%

45.2%

0.015

Crosshair Exploration

CAD 0.12

-94.9%

15.0%

0.009

A-CAP Resources

AUD 0.11

-88.7%

37.5%

0.008

Fission Energy

CAD 0.15

-90.9%

76.5%

0.005

Curnamona Energy

AUD 0.16

-84.5%

18.5%

0.007

Coronation Minerals

CAD 0.03

-93.2%

20.0%

0.003

Khan Resources

CAD 0.17

-90.6%

17.2%

0.007

Bayswater Uranium

CAD 0.07

-93.5%

18.2%

0.008

Energy Fuels

CAD 0.12

-93.3%

9.1%

0.006

Azimut Exploration

CAD 0.32

-93.2%

68.4%

0.004

Desert Energy

AUD 0.07

-82.1%

16.7%

0.004

Pancontinental Uranium

CAD 0.06

-92.7%

9.1%

0.002

Pepinnini Minerals

AUD 0.25

-81.9%

22.5%

0.011

Nuinsco Resources

CAD 0.04

-88.2%

33.3%

0.006

West Prospector

CAD 0.11

-92.9%

5.0%

0.005

Pitchstone Exploration

CAD 0.16

-94.0%

14.8%

0.004

Canalaska Uranium

CAD 0.06

-87.5%

22.2%

0.006

Uranium Power

CAD 0.09

-84.5%

13.3%

0.007

Bitterroot Resources

CAD 0.11

-90.3%

5.0%

0.005

Encounter Resources

AUD 0.11

-78.0%

59.4%

0.005

Calypso Uranium

CAD 0.05

-91.5%

42.9%

0.002

Magnum Uranium

CAD 0.10

-90.2%

0.0%

0.002

Atomic Resources

AUD 0.08

-74.2%

12.7%

0.003

Titan Uranium

CAD 0.17

-82.8%

41.7%

0.007

Uranex

AUD 0.15

-85.8%

31.8%

0.008

Red Hill Energy

CAD 0.30

-70.0%

50.0%

0.011

Pele Mountain

CAD 0.10

-81.5%

66.7%

0.007

Crossland Uranium

AUD 0.05

-78.8%

4.0%

0.004

Monaro Mining

AUD 0.09

-90.4%

28.6%

0.005

Epsilon Energy

AUD 0.05

-94.1%

2.0%

0.002

Eromanga Uranium

AUD 0.04

-81.8%

42.9%

0.003

African Energy

AUD 0.01

-97.0%

0.0%

0.001

Fusion Resources

AUD 0.23

-80.0%

9.5%

0.007

NWT Uranium

CAD 0.04

-95.3%

75.0%

0.004

Cash Minerals

CAD 0.04

-92.3%

33.3%

0.004

Apollo Minerals

AUD 0.17

-66.0%

6.3%

0.010

Forum Uranium

CAD 0.06

-89.3%

140.0%

0.004

Wealth Minerals

CAD 0.19

-92.8%

12.1%

0.004

Santoy Resources

CAD 0.07

-89.7%

44.4%

0.005

Uracan Resources

CAD 0.20

-76.2%

53.8%

0.015

Niger Uranium

GBP 0.04

-90.6%

0.0%

0.006

Unor

CAD 0.07

-75.0%

160.0%

0.007

Purepoint Uranium

CAD 0.06

-91.1%

37.5%

0.003

Nortec Ventures

CAD 0.12

-67.1%

35.3%

0.007

Int'l Enexco

CAD 0.25

-90.0%

25.0%

0.004

U3O8 Corp.

CAD 0.25

-82.3%

47.1%

0.005

Silver Spruce

CAD 0.12

-87.2%

140.0%

0.005

Triex Minerals

CAD 0.27

-91.4%

63.6%

0.004

Rum Jungle Uranium

AUD 0.04

-80.0%

11.1%

0.003

Solex Resources

CAD 0.04

-91.1%

60.0%

0.002

Uravan Minerals

CAD 0.15

-83.3%

36.4%

0.003

Universal Uranium

CAD 0.05

-92.0%

80.0%

0.002

Oklo Uranium

AUD 0.03

-83.2%

3.3%

0.002

Hawk Uranium

CAD 0.04

-88.9%

60.0%

0.002

Macusani Yellowcake

CAD 0.18

-76.7%

75.0%

0.005

Great Australian

AUD 0.04

-87.9%

48.1%

0.003

Contact Uranium

AUD 0.01

-97.9%

25.0%

0.001

Blue Sky Uranium

CAD 0.04

-94.4%

0.0%

0.001

Aura Energy

AUD 0.18

-64.7%

63.6%

0.005

Empire Resources

AUD 0.04

-83.1%

0.0%

0.002

Northern Continental

CAD 0.09

-79.1%

50.0%

0.004

Int'l Montoro

CAD 0.05

-85.7%

100.0%

0.001

North Atlantic Resources

CAD 0.03

-95.0%

50.0%

0.001

Uranium City

CAD 0.02

-95.2%

50.0%

0.001

Developer averages/total

-82.4%

45.1%

2.961

Weighted averages

-79.3%

60.9%

Overall averages/total

-80.9%

45.0%

12.360

Overall weighted averages

-67.9%

50.7%

Diversifieds with uranium

Areva

EUR 351.00

-57.2%

6.4%

15.852

Rio Tinto

GBP 13.11

-81.7%

1.9%

28.413

BHP Billiton

GBP 10.29

-53.3%

40.7%

92.659

AngloGold Ashanti

USD 21.43

-56.4%

60.3%

7.515

Equinox

CAD 1.29

-81.6%

69.7%

0.614

* 12-month

Source: market data; table compiled by Barry Sergeant