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Feds have done it!

17 Dec, 2008 @ 03:48 am ET | written by ecPulse.com


Yes, Bernanke and his committee are still the talk of town and surely they deserve it! The step taken has seemingly worked in supporting confidence among investors and now the focus for once is on an easier recession as the Federal Reserve along side the government and all efforts to follow across the globe will help in stemming the deepening recession woes and markets are now confident for once in the decisions taken.

The Feds opted to end the struggle and the continued betting and speculations by markets over interest rates as they have set the records straight and proved that noting is impossible and that desperate times indeed call for desperate measures as they implement the "ZERO RATE POLICY" the step was smart and is now to divert markets attention to what is more crucial and important which is money and credit markets!

They have done all they can to the economy which is the lowest rates on records to support economic growth and preserved their pride I might add with this move as the rates are not a BLUNT ZERO they are a range TO ZERO and to that I say hats off to you Mr. Bernanke for you have worked hard and have earned my respect and worked well for history to immortalize your name...

Markets in the US yesterday took the news well as stocks led the rally and the S&P 500 set a five-week high adding 5.1% to 913.18 while the DJIA added 359.61 points or 4.2% to 8924.14. Today Asia followed suit with the Japanese Nikkei 225 adding 0.5% while Hang Seng added 1.2%.

The dollar lost grounds against its major rivals after the decision weakening to as low as $1.4192 today versus the euro and slumping to the lowest in nearly 13 years against the Japanese yen as it trades below 89 yen per dollar!

Now the focus as we know has shifted and the Feds have done the steps to divert their attention towards facilitating credit markets and assuring normality again in the financial sector especially for banks and lenders, while as there is no rate cut to await now all markets will be looking at is the measures the fed are adopting to guide the markets and the economy out of its rout which according to the unorthodox Japanese method quantitative easing it is!

We now need to watch out of assets purchases and the flood of liquidity the feds are to do, they have already started yet markets have not recognized that with the number of facilities invented and the massive pumped liquidities in the economy and as well facilitating the dollar supply globally with numerous swap lines with other central banks.

They are extending their balance sheet and using it as the basic measure now to counter the devastating damage left from the financial genocide until once more credit and money supply for the real economy manages to set what is normal now after the crisis. They are providing liquidity and not just by handing out the dollar stream no they are buying off those ailing assets that have swamped the balance sheets and crippled the banking system they are not assuring their liabilities as much as providing them the chance to start again with fresh balance sheets free of those frozen assets that the Feds have the risk to endure for good as they might not be bought back!

Well I have faith now and seemingly markets do too, though still there are lingering mines along the way especially for now with deflation risks! The statement yesterday indicated that inflation pressures have diminished yet comments from Fed officials are heading towards assure the fed does not fear deflation and if that is to be seen it is merely a short period, which coming to think of it with the preemptive pumped cash to restore stability that might actually come into effect into next year as inflation slows.

Oil and other commodities are still the concern especially the former which even with the dollar slump yesterday and the expected cut from OPEC today still oil is below $45 a barrel!

Consumer price inflation in the US yesterday set a record drop falling to an annual 1.5% while the core level is at the comfortable zone at 2.0 percent. The fall is rapid and the feds have delivered the measure to prevent with the all new range set at ZERO!

Their moves echoes expectations that the first to follow might be the Japanese and the British, as the former now is no longer the LOWEST YEILDING MAJOR CURRENCY as the DOLLAR IS while the latter is the most that fears deflation fears and are on the path to set rates are their record low!

CPI in UK fell as well yesterday yet are still above the comfort zone and the drop so far is massive and the BoE fear undershooting the target over the medium term and might fall back below 1.0% indeed according to King's letter to the Chancellor yesterday after inflation persisted above the target for the third month at 4.1%!

The minutes today are to elaborate further on their latest decision to take rates down to their lowest since 1951 at 2.0% as surely the decision must have been unanimous and if not the split would have been to a bigger cut as no one is expected to oppose the drastic measures being taken!

Europe is experiencing the pain with the US after the crisis that neared a total of $1 trillion of writedowns and credit losses. The euro zone fell already in recession and seemingly still tumbling while Trichet was the one to say he is surly not facing deflation fears! Thought figures today prove that he might have something to worry about especially as the CPI approves the flash estimate and inflation falling rapidly back towards the comfort zone after peaking at a 16-year high to now at 2.1 percent!

Still the dilemma is ongoing yet the hopes are staring to shine for the steps to stem the fall and assure markets and economic rebound to start building base in the coming spring as it blossoms and ends the rout we have been living for nearly the past two years...

For more forex information, go to www.ecpulse.com

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