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The Real US Federal Debt Has Ballooned to More than $100 Trillion



By J.s Kim
27 May 2009 @ 06:42 pm ET

Currently, the US federal debt stands at more than $100 trillion. According to the recent US stock market rally, the fact that the US government is not only bankrupt but has put every four-person family in America on the hook for more than $1.45 million does not merit concern. Of course, in reality, the US economy and the US stock market are two entirely different creatures. Perhaps, if the Plunge Protection Team took a prolonged vacation, US stock market behavior would begin to reflect the fundamentals of the US economy again. However, it is important for an investor to understand that due to the not-so-invisible hands of Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and the Plunge Protection Team, quite often, the US market can move higher for sustained periods of time even when the fundamentals of the US economy at large are atrocious. This is the fiat money-induced phenomena otherwise known as irrational exuberance. In the long run, the fundamentals of the economy at large will catch up and drive US stock market behavior once again. Despite the recent stock market rally, the fundamentals of the US economy are downright scary. According to the figures released by the US government, as of May 25, 2009, the US federal debt stood at $11.3 trillion, about $37,000 for every man, woman and child in the US (we'll get to the real federal debt figure soon). To accommodate this growing debt, the US government merely raises its debt ceiling every so often to avoid default in the US Treasury market. Currently this debt ceiling stands at $12.104 trillion. Recently foreign appetite for Treasury auctions has dried up and the US Federal Reserve has resorted to buying US Treasuries in the absence of foreign demand to keep the US Treasury market from collapsing. However, what if the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries realized that the current US federal debt already exceeded the national debt ceiling by $98 trillion? How would they feel about keeping the US Treasuries they currently hold?

According to Richard W. Fisher, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the unfunded liabilities of the US Social Security and Medicare system stand at $99.2 trillion today. That figure is not a misprint. If the US government plans to keep operating the Social Security system and the Medicare system, then the official federal debt really is $11.3 trillion plus $99.2 trillion, or $110.5 trillion. Why does our government state that its federal deficit is only slightly north of $11 trillion (with the term "only" a relative term, given that the true US deficit is about ten times greater than the "official" government figure)? Over the years, the US government has stated several reasons why they don't include unfunded obligations in their official debt figures, with one of the most common reasons being that these programs are optional and can be cut at any time.

However, this practice is tantamount to a corporation omitting the cost of its health benefits program from its operational expenses even though it has promised its employees health care benefits. If the government is omitting the expense of the nationwide Social Security and Medicare programs from its budget, is this an admission that these programs will soon be history? Given the fact that a $110.5 trillion deficit puts every American family of four on the hook for more than $1.45 million, it seems unlikely that those of us that have paid a lifetime of Social Security taxes but are still many years away from eligibility will actually live to see the benefits of doing so.

Or maybe I am being too hasty. Richard Fisher explains that mechanisms that can fund the currently unfunded obligations of the Social Security system ($13.6 trillion) and the Medicare system ($85.6 trillion) do exist. For example, "a permanent 68 percent increase in federal income tax revenue-from individual and corporate taxpayers-would suffice to fully fund our entitlement programs." Other than that, the only other mechanism to keep the nationwide Social Security and Medicare programs afloat in the future, according to Fisher, would be to cut discretionary spending by 97%, thus eliminating the majority portions of the national budget for defense, security, education, and the environment. Of course, this solution is not viable, so we are left to explore the alternative permanent 68% increase in taxes. Or perhaps the solution is to devalue the dollar until it takes $1 trillion to purchase a single loaf of bread. Then, the sale of 100 loaves of bread could solve this nasty shortfall. Sarcasm aside, I make this point to illustrate the severity of this problem.

The government may attempt to implement the tax solution but it is probably more likely that when push comes to shove in the political arena, they will have to axe either the Social Security and Medicare programs, or maybe even both. If you think this outcome is unfathomable, consider that for these two programs and their associate benefits to survive, $99.2 trillion either has to be raised through taxation or cut from programs that have already promised funds. There is no other solution to this problem, other than to attempt to inflate the $110 trillion deficit away. Furthermore, when debating the realm of discretionary spending cuts to refill the government's coffers, this avenue, in reality, is not viable either, simply because cuts from any other programs other than from those of national defense and national security won't be large enough to make an impact. In the end, it seems as though most of us still believe that a bankrupt government can provide the backbone for an economic recovery.

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Comments
1.
Aug 20, 2009 10:07pm

Imagine if in 1950, someone had calculated the costs of educating the baby boomers in public institutions through their college years. What an immense, unmanageable burden! And nothing-not a penny-had been set aside by 1950 to cover the costs of public universities in the 1960s and 1970s! Using the logic of unfunded liabilities that has fueled alarmist media stories, public universities should have been closed; education should have been left to the private sector. Yet nobody ever claimed in the 1950s and 1960s that the education of the Baby Boomers was an excessive burden our society, or that our public institutions could not afford to accept the challenge. When we needed more schools, we built them. Why should the Boomers' retirement be unmanageable? We need to strengthen social insurance for old people, and we will be able to afford it.
2.
Aug 20, 2009 10:11pm

Pay of Top Earners Erodes Social Security (Wall Street Journal) July 23, 2009 Fund Expected to Be Exhausted in 2037 By Ellen E. Schultz The nation's wealth gap is widening amid an uproar about lofty pay packages in the financial world. Executives and other highly compensated employees now receive more than one-third of all pay in the U.S., according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Social Security Administration data -- without counting billions of dollars more in pay that remains off federal radar screens that measure wages and salaries. Highly paid employees received nearly $2.1 trillion of the $6.4 trillion in total U.S. pay in 2007, the latest figures available. The compensation numbers don't include incentive stock options, unexercised stock options, unvested restricted stock units and certain benefits. The pay of employees who receive more than the Social Security wage base -- now $106,800 -- increased by 78%, or nearly $1 trillion, over the past decade, exceeding the 61% increase for other workers, according to the analysis. In the five years ending in 2007, earnings for American workers rose 24%, half the 48% gain for the top-paid. The result: The top-paid represent 33% of the total, up from 28% in 2002. The growing portion of pay that exceeds the maximum amount subject to payroll taxes has contributed to the weakening of the Social Security trust fund. In May, the government said the Social Security fund would be exhausted in 2037, four years earlier than was predicted in 2008. The data suggest that the payroll tax ceiling hasn't kept up with the growth in executive pay. As executive pay has increased, the percentage of wages subject to payroll taxes has shrunk, to 83% from 90% in 1982. Compensation that isn't subject to the portion of payroll tax that funds old-age benefits now represents foregone revenue of $115 billion a year. The magnitude of executive pay has been difficult to measure, even as policy makers grapple with ways to rein in compensation at companies receiving taxpayer bailouts. Companies aggregate the salaries of all employees in their filings to the Internal Revenue Service and to the Securities and Exchange Commission, and disclose details only for top officers. But payroll taxes provide an indirect way to calculate amounts executives receive. Only earnings up to a certain ceiling are subject to a U.S. payroll tax of 12.4%, split between employer and employee, which finances Social Security retirement benefits. The ceiling, which is indexed to the average growth in wages, is $106,800 in 2009, up from $102,000 in 2008 and $97,500 in 2007. (Employers and employees also each pay 1.45% on an individual's total income, with no salary ceiling, to fund Medicare.) Social Security data show that 6% of wage earners have pay that exceeds the taxable earnings base, and that their "covered earnings" above the taxable maximum totaled $1.1 trillion in 2007. Adding the portion of their pay below the taxable wage base, $991 billion, totals $2.1 trillion. The $2.1 trillion figure understates executive pay, however, because it includes just salary and vested deferred compensation, including bonuses. It doesn't include unvested employer contributions and unvested interest credited to deferred-pay accounts. Nor does it include unexercised stock options (options aren't subject to payroll tax until exercised), and unvested restricted stock (which isn't subject to payroll tax until vested; the subsequent appreciation is taxed as a capital gain). Also not included in the total compensation figures is executive pay never subject to payroll tax. This category includes incentive stock options (which are generally taxed as capital gains), "carried interest" income received by hedge-fund and private-equity fund partners (also taxed as capital gains), and compensation characterized as a benefit (benefits generally aren't subject to any taxes). Benefits, a category that includes employer-provided health care and contributions employers make to rank-and-file pension plans, totaled nearly $1 trillion in 2007; it isn't possible to tell what portion represents benefits for executives, such as life insurance. The ability to delay paying payroll taxes on compensation, something that generally is available only to highly paid employees, is in itself an economic benefit that ultimately boosts paychecks. Lawmakers over the years have introduced bills to raise the taxable wage ceiling, or eliminate it, as was done for the Medicare portion in 1993. During the presidential campaign, Barack Obama proposed extending payroll taxes on households with incomes above $250,000, but the administration isn't pursuing any change as it focuses on proposals for tax increases on wealthy households to help finance a health-care program. Lifting the earnings ceiling could result in higher Social Security benefits payments to higher-income individuals, since benefits are based on a worker's highest 35 years of earnings. But the additional tax revenue would have decades to earn a return, thus offsetting the cost of the additional payments. Social Security Administration actuaries estimate removing the earnings ceiling could eliminate the trust fund's deficit altogether for the next 75 years, or nearly eliminate it if credit toward benefits was provided for the additional taxable earnings. Employers oppose changes that would increase their share of payroll tax. In addition, eliminating the ceiling would prevent employers from using a controversial but common technique, based on payroll taxes, to award additional benefits to executives who participate in rank-and-file pension and 401(k) plans. For example, health insurer Humana Inc. contributes 4% of pay to employees' retirement accounts on salary up to the taxable-earnings wage base -- and 8% above it. Thanks to the richer contribution, Humana Chief Executive Michael B. McCallister received a total contribution of $22,370 under the plan in 2008. (He also received $314,790 in company contributions to his supplemental executive retirement and savings plan.) Typically, employers can't discriminate in favor of high-paid employees who participate in taxpayer-subsidized retirement plans. But a "permitted disparity" exception enables them to provide additional benefits on the portion of pay that isn't subject to payroll taxes, ostensibly to replace the Social Security benefits executives won't receive on the portion of their pay that is exempt from payroll taxes. Humana declined to comment.

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